Why Markus Thielen Says Bitcoin's Pain Isn't Over Yet | Markets Outlook

**Markus Thielen** (0:00)
I can't imagine we sort of like end the year around this level, but we're gonna make a dip lower towards 46, 47,000. That's a bit lower than we initially expected, but I think we're gonna go lower because there is no real buyer right now. MicroStrategy was really the only buyer year to date really was I think 13 billion dollars of purchases or acquisitions really, but you know, right now, there is no real buyer in the market. I think that's why we sort of like still in this kind of liquidation period from the ETFs.
And then once we dip from here to 46,000, I think then we can have like a rally back to like 60, 65

**Jennifer Sanasie** (0:42)
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**Markus Thielen** (1:18)
Hey, thanks for having me once again.

**Jennifer Sanasie** (1:20)
Yeah, thanks for being back. We were talking about it before we started recording here. The last time you and I spoke, you did say we had a bearish future ahead and that prediction came true.
The coin is below $60,000 this morning. Last time I checked, it was at about $58,500. Talk to me about what you're watching, what we can expect from here.

**Markus Thielen** (1:44)
Well, we are, of course, watching the flows. Our initial view was that we probably bottom out this year. In our outlook report, really, we thought we're going to bottom out around the FIFA soccer World Cup when the volumes are going to be very low, the trading environment is going to be very miserable. I think we are in this miserable trading environment right now, but it doesn't seem like we are bottoming out because we're still seeing a lot of outflows. Of course, the market is really focusing on MicroStrategy, that the buying has actually really slowed down, but it's more really the ETFs have been selling and are aggressively selling, and I think that keeps Bitcoin still pushing a bit lower, and I think there are certain technical levels that we're looking at.
But again, we don't really have a catalyst coming up, and I think that's why we're still going to see the market a bit lower over the next couple of weeks, if not even months.

**Jennifer Sanasie** (2:35)
You just mentioned a few big things, $4.5 billion exited Bitcoin ETFs as of the end of June. Michael Saylor previously said he would never sell any Bitcoin. Now, maybe the sale of some Bitcoin could happen in the future. Of course, we saw that 32 Bitcoin sale happen recently with him as well. And you mentioned it, no real catalyst to look forward to this year. For a long time, we were talking about clarity.
It's very unclear if clarity is going to pass this year before midterms. Just talk to me about that lack of catalysts. When do you think we pick up again and get out of this rut?

**Markus Thielen** (3:14)
Well, I don't think clarity was a catalyst by itself, right? I think even the Genius Act, I would argue, was not really a catalyst at all for the market, right? It was, of course, a lot of expectations into the event. But then we sort of peaked out at a lot of assets really across the board and in a lot of crypto stocks. I think Coinbase peaked out last summer around that time and then really didn't really do much until really we started to sell off. But normally, we're coming into July. July tends to be sort of like the last bullish months before we're going into the bigger consolidation. So normally, we have actually 9% positive performance in July. But again, I don't think there's any real catalyst. It's not just that we have seen the ETFs really selling $4 billion over the last couple of weeks. Actually, since mid-May, since the inflation report came out, that actually the selling started really, and there has been actually $7 billion of alveolar ETFs, and that is really offsetting, I would say, a lot of the inflows that we have seen initially from MicroStrategy. Of course, they have stepped back, and especially with now the MNF even around one. I think they have their own internal hurdle rate, a little bit above 1.2 where they're going to issue more shares. We are really far away. But it's really that there's a lot of macro headwinds, and Bitcoin has become more and more a macro asset over the last couple of years, really. And I think that's what a lot of people dismiss a little bit.