Why Latin America Wants Change in Venezuela

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

You're about to make a trade.

SPEAKER_2 (0:02)

Which you do you listen to?

Carlos Solar (0:03)

Is it get optioning those options?

SPEAKER_1 (0:07)

Or let's do a little research.

Luke Vargas (0:11)

Learn more at finra.org/tradesmart. As Venezuela's Delce Rodriguez takes the oath of office, we'll assess her chances of turning around the country and the depth of Trump's foreign policy commitment to the Americas.

Carlos Solar (0:28)

As long as Marco Rubio is running the show, I think there will be a lot of energy towards the Western Missphere.

Luke Vargas (0:35)

Plus, Nvidia pulls back the curtain on faster AI chips, and more than 8 million workers get a pay bump, as states hike their minimum wage. It's Tuesday, January 6th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM Edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. We begin in Venezuela, where Nicolás Maduro's long-time vice president and top lieutenant, Delci Rodríguez, was formerly sworn in as acting president yesterday.

In a ceremony, Rodríguez pledged to protect Venezuela's sovereignty and independence, and she described Maduro's arrest as the kidnapping of a hero. But those defiant words come as she signaled her willingness to work with Washington and spoken to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. So how reliable a partner is Rodríguez for the US? For more, we're joined by Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, the Royal United Services Institute in London. Carlos, we exclusively report that in the run-up to Maduro's arrest, the CIA concluded that Rodríguez, as well as other members of Maduro's inner circle, were the ones who were best placed to maintain order in Venezuela, while opposition figures would be in a position where they'd be struggling to gain legitimacy, facing resistance from security forces, drug trafficking networks. What do you make of that, especially in terms of what it's gonna take to see this safe, proper, judicious transition in Venezuela that President Trump has promised?

Carlos Solar (2:09)

I think that's the safe bet. The US has been collecting intelligence since Operation Southern Spear started five months ago, at least.

So I think the security services have a good and clear idea of who's running the country, where the combatants are, where organized crime bases are, and what role could an organized by quite thinned out opposition led by Maria Corina Machado, who's currently out of the country, together with Edmundo Gonzalez. So I think it is a smart idea to try to navigate this critical moment with the regime. That doesn't mean that the US should be lenient to the regime at all. I think pressure is needed. But I think a dialogue with Delci Rodriguez might move the needle in the direction that the rest of Latin America will want, which is redemocratization of Venezuela.

Luke Vargas (3:00)

We haven't talked much about immigration in the context of Venezuela the last few days. So many people have fled Venezuela in recent years. That is going to be an angle to watch in the weeks, months, years to come. Do people start to return, especially if the governance situation there improves?

Carlos Solar (3:14)

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, the calculations are 8 million Venezuelans have gone out of the country, north, south, east and west, neighbouring countries, and all the way north to the US and Canada, all the way south to Chile and Argentina. So it's a big problem. Those lines of migration are usually controlled by transnational organized crime. Everyone in Latin America has been hurt by Tren de Aragua. Okay? So they are a very, very mean criminal organization who are taking spaces in Ecuador, in Peru, in Colombia, in Brazil, in Chile, in Central America. So all these countries, they might not side with the politics of Donald Trump. They might not side with the White House American foreign policy, but they do side with the fact that Venezuela is in a downward spiral and is escalating criminality across Latin America.

Luke Vargas (4:08)

Would you say those forces are stronger than some of the opposition to US action we've seen in recent days? For instance, Colombia's president saying he'd be ready to take up arms against the US. Cuba, which we should say lost 32 of its officers in the operation to capture Maduro, called American forces terrorists in imperial uniform. And we've seen protests in places like Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. What should we make of that?

Carlos Solar (4:31)

This is a lot of heat of the moment, okay? A lot of political opposition to whatever Donald Trump will do. If we rewind history and we go to 1989, when the US did something similar to Noriega in Panama, if you read history, opposition to the United States lasted for long. But then Panama turned into a flourishing country, which is now a hub for finance, for commerce, and for other services across Latin America. But the fact that Venezuela has been the hotspot of many vices towards the rest of the Western Hemisphere. The relationship with the US is so important for Colombia. The security of Colombia is not at a good moment. Some parts of Colombia have been dominated again through either guerrilla paramilitaries or organized crime, all in a lot of connection to their border with Venezuela. So it's not about running Venezuela. I think it's about having enough political pressure in order to steer the regime in one direction, which is, believe me, what a lot of Latin American countries would want transition towards democracy in Venezuela.