Why Iran Doesn’t Have a New Supreme Leader

Ryan Knutson (0:00)

Hey, it's Ryan Knutson, host of The Journal Podcast, our show about money, business, and power. If you're looking for more deeply reported stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com/thejournal, all lowercase, to subscribe now.

Luke Vargas (0:22)

Golf energy production begins to wind down, risking a global supply shock.

Gyorgy Konchev (0:27)

When you shut down production, these wells take time to go back online. In the case of gas and in some oil wells, it could be weeks until they're fully back online. So these disruptions are definitely going to be with us for a while.

Luke Vargas (0:39)

Plus, the US resumes diplomatic relations with Venezuela, and we'll look at the rapper and champion of Gen Z protests poised to lead Nepal. It's Friday, March 6th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM Edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories, moving your world today. Israel says that its military is moving to the next phase of its campaign against Iran, shifting from surprise attacks to a dismantling of its regime and military capabilities. Meanwhile, US. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the amount of firepower over Iran quote, is about to surge dramatically. A pledge that comes as top defense industry executives prepare to meet President Trump at the White House today. We report that Pentagon officials are drawing up plans to replenish US munitions after pressuring defense contractors for months to up their missile production. Meanwhile, as we approach the war's one-week mark, Iran continues to lack a supreme leader after Saturday's killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. I asked journal correspondent Sune Rasmussen where succession planning currently stands.

Sune Rasmussen (1:54)

Iran has only done this once before. So we don't really know how long it's going to take. Iran might have a successor lined up, but they haven't announced anything yet. And the leadership is in a little bit of a bind here. Selecting a new supreme leader relatively soon would help them in their efforts to show continuity, that the country functions even if you take out the leader. But on the other hand, whoever they pick will immediately have a target on his back. I mean, Israel has said as much that they will target the next supreme leader. So it might be unwise for Tehran to select someone while Israel and the US are still pummeling the country. And you can say the same for the funeral plans. Khamenei was killed six days ago. And when the funeral takes place in Tehran, you will have millions of people in the street. Is it beyond the US and Israel to strike funeral procession, especially the officials that want to participate in it? I don't think Iran can be certain of that. So that might be why we haven't seen the funeral take place yet.

Luke Vargas (2:52)

Sune, President Trump told Reuters yesterday that the US would be involved in choosing Khamenei's successor, saying that he basically wanted to avoid having to go back into Iran in the future. Have we seen any indication of this US involvement so far?

Sune Rasmussen (3:05)

I haven't seen any evidence that the US is speaking to people who matter in Iran about who the next successor should be. I think it's important to understand that the Islamic Republic was founded on anti-Western imperialism and that is still the foundation and that's still what drives the people who run the country. So I would be very surprised if this decision-making process is opened up to President Trump. I think it's clear that President Trump is influenced by Venezuela and his success in influencing who runs that country now. But there is a big difference between a president in Venezuela and then a supreme leader in Iran. The supreme leader in Iran is not just the head of government, the armed forces and the judiciary. He is also the highest religious authority for up to 200 million Shia Muslims across the world. That is not a position that foreigners have historically had much influence over.

Luke Vargas (4:01)

Meanwhile, the war's economic ripple effects are becoming clear with each passing day. Something that journal foreign correspondent Gorky Kanchev has been tracking for us. Gorky, let's start by talking about oil, shall we? This has long been the backbone of economic activity in the Gulf. What's the latest we have on both the state of oil production and its export, which is a crucial factor here as well?

Gyorgy Konchev (4:23)

Yeah, the issue is pretty important for the region because the Strait of Hormuz, which is this maritime choke point through which about a fifth of the world's oil goes through every single day is effectively shut down. There's very, very, very few tankers going through. And for a lot of countries in the region, including Kuwait, Bahrain, some Saudi production, UAE, they just can't export it. And one thing to watch here is the amount of storage these countries have. Because when you produce oil and cannot export it, you put it into storage. And in normal times, the storage capacity is enough for some small disruptions and exports, but this could go for another few weeks. And there's not enough storage in the region.