Why Asia’s Sinking Consumer Confidence is the World’s Problem

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Luke Vargas (0:33)

Talk of a Washington takeover of Spirit Airlines hits Republican opposition. Plus, authorities charge a member of US. Special Forces with using classified Intel to bet on Nicolás Maduro's ouster.

SPEAKER_3 (0:46)

Because it kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own team.

David Zinsler (0:50)

Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good.

Frederic Neumann (0:52)

But he bet on his own team.

David Zinsler (0:54)

I'll look into it.

Luke Vargas (0:55)

And global consumers beware. We'll look at why the effects of Asia's diesel and fertilizer shortages won't stay there. It's Friday, April 24th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. And here is the AM Edition of What's News. The top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

US authorities have charged an American soldier who took part in the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro with using classified information to earn more than $400,000 on Polymarket. The Justice Department says the master sergeant, who signed an NDA, took part in the execution and planning of Operation Absolute Resolve, and after making several well-timed bets, then tried to cover his tracks by sending most of his gains to a foreign cryptocurrency account and asking Polymarket to delete his account. Journal Finance Editor Alex Franckos says the charges mark a shift in how the government views insider information being used on prediction markets.

Alex Franckos (1:54)

What's really significant with the Venezuela case is that it's a Department of Justice case against him. The government is basically saying, look, we're not going to be totally laissez-faire about this. We really don't want people exploiting these markets to advantage based especially on government, let alone military, inside information.

And there's been a lot of question as to whether the Trump administration would go and enforce these things because there's basic questions with prediction markets. They're so new, they're so novel. Are these even securities? Are these even regulated instruments that fall under existing laws? Or are they something new and novel that needs new laws written about them or not?

Luke Vargas (2:36)

The case comes a day after Polymarket competitor, Kalshi, announced that it had fined and suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races.

Polymarket said that it has policies designed to combat insider trading. But Alex says that both incidents come out of vital moment for the increasingly popular prediction markets.

Alex Franckos (2:55)

They want informed information to feed through into the market, to tell the market, hey, this thing is likely to happen or not happen. But one of the real tensions among users is like, there appear to be this pattern of these cases where someone makes a really well-timed bet, makes a lot of money, and for the people who don't have inside information, they feel like they're at a disadvantage. But some people say that's the point of these markets, is you want insiders to come in and move the price because that tells you the likelihood of something happening.

Luke Vargas (3:25)

And we should note that Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. President Trump has said that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks. In a post on social media, Trump said the US will work with Lebanon to help it protect itself from Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Israel and Hezbollah continued to exchange fire in southern Lebanon and northern Israel in the hours before the announcement of the ceasefire extension. Iran has pushed for an agreement to force Israel to end strikes in Lebanon as a precondition of its own ceasefire deal with the US.

A potential federal bailout of Spirit Airlines is hitting turbulence in Washington even as President Trump talks up the prospect of buying the carrier to try and turn a profit on a future sale. Republican Senators Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton are speaking out against the government taking a stake in the airline, and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has noted that past federal bailouts, including of banks in 2008, were politically unpopular. A key group of Spirit bondholders yesterday also came out against the bailout plan, concerned that it could leave them with a small minority stake in the airline, and analysts at JPMorgan warned that a government rescue could spur other carriers to seek government help. We report that senior officials are considering a loan to Spirit of as much as $500 million in exchange for warrants that could give Washington a significant stake in the airline.