Why a Hormuz Toll Makes Economic Sense

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Daniel Bach (0:33)

The White House races to contain Israel's deadly war in Lebanon ahead of peace talks with Iran. Plus, President Trump sends mixed messages about a potential toll on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tom Fairless (0:45)

The oil price might go up by between five and 40 cents per barrel as a result of a one or two dollar charge. If you think that because of these problems in the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price has risen 30, 40, 50 dollars a barrel, that's peanuts. It's affordable for the global economy.

Daniel Bach (1:00)

And what's at stake for mega in this weekend's election in Hungary? It's Friday, April 10th. I'm Daniel Bach for the Wall Street Journal, filling in for Luke Vargas. And here's the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. The Trump administration is racing to contain Israel's expanding war in Lebanon as the US prepares for high stakes talks with Iran this weekend.

In a video statement addressing Israelis, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said direct negotiations with Lebanon would begin toward a lasting peace and disarming Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. But he also said Israel would continue striking Lebanon with the full force of its military until security is restored in northern Israel. That message came after a phone call with President Trump yesterday. A US official told the journal Trump was concerned that the fighting could undermine the ceasefire and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, President Trump has warned Iran against collecting tolls from ships transiting the vital waterway while also suggesting tolls could be a joint venture between Iran and the US. Tehran has said it is charging some ships $2 million. Only eight ships carrying Iranian cargoes got through yesterday. Before the war, it was about 135 each day. And while consumers have been feeling the effects of the straits closure, global economics correspondent Tom Fairless says a toll wouldn't have as broad an impact.

Tom Fairless (2:31)

If this arrangement, this toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz were to be institutionalized and Iran was allowed to do this, say charge $1 or $2 per barrel of oil flowing through, economists say most of the burden would actually be taken by the Gulf states. And the reason is essentially that it's a global oil market and the Gulf producers, once they paid their toll, they need to go and compete in the market. And if they're charging $1 or $2 extra per barrel, then the purchaser is going to buy from somewhere else, from an American producer. I think the other point is that the cost of production is extremely low in the Gulf. And so the Gulf producers have got a lot of room to pay this kind of fee.

Daniel Bach (3:10)

But while the economics suggest a toll in the Strait of Hormuz could be part of a peace deal, Tom says the geopolitical consequences might be too big.

Tom Fairless (3:18)

It's essentially a type of institutionalized piracy that you can use your geographic position on a choke point to extort money from people who need to get past and say, we're going to bomb you if you don't. So I mean, that was a feature of the global economy for centuries. So this would set a precedent that sort of takes the world back. And especially China, which is a key ally of Iran, the biggest exporter in the world might not want to see this return to the past in terms of trade. So the geopolitics would potentially speak against a deal.

Daniel Bach (3:51)

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be top of the agenda when Iran and the US begin peace talks in Pakistan this weekend. We are exclusively reporting that the White House has warned staff about placing bets on the Iran War in futures markets. That in an email from the White House Management Office, which came the day after President Trump announced a sudden pause in strikes on Iran, a flurry of trading activity kicked off about 15 minutes before Trump posted the news on social media, with Dow Jones Market data showing that more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes. More recently, three accounts on Polymarket earned more than $600,000 by correctly betting on the timing of this week's Iran ceasefire. The White House confirmed the warning, but there is no evidence of leaks or that anyone within the administration is using inside information or well-timed bets. We should note, Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal. And now to Florida.