Who Should Vote First in 2028? Michael’s Democratic Primary Strategy Game

**Michael Smerconish** (0:00)
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**SPEAKER_3** (0:37)
And join Michael Smerconish right here, in the middle.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:40)
This is The Smerconish Podcast for Independent Minds.

**Michael Smerconish** (0:45)
I want to play a game, and it's a game of political strategy. It concerns the Democratic Party, although ours will face some similar issues, but it's more important that this get hammered out of the Democratic side of the aisle, because Democrats have to herd cats, in terms of their constituency. Republicans, much more monolithic. Let me say up front, to play, either to just imagine the answer to yourself, or to actually call the program, one need not be a Democrat. I am not a Democrat, and I'm playing.
And the objective is this, to determine who bats first, because we're going to set the Democrats' 2028 election calendar. We're going to do this because there's a fight underway within the Democratic Party that almost nobody outside the party is really watching, although I'm really interested in it. It may end up deciding who the nominee will be among the Democrats for 2028, and arguably therefore, who will be the next president of the United States. But it's not about the candidate necessarily, it's about the calendar.
I'm looking at a report in the New York Times telling me that a panel of 49 insiders on the Democratic National Committee is meeting in Washington to sketch out the order of the early nominating states, who meaning which state votes first, which will vote second, and so on, and then the full party will vote to finalize this. As the Times puts it, the order is deeply consequential because, quote, the calendar is likely to play a significant role in deciding who ultimately emerges as the next Democratic presidential nominee.
And here's why the story gets a little bit ugly, because two states have emerged as the front runners to go first, South Carolina and Nevada.
And the fight between them in the words of the Times has pitted black and Latino party leaders against each other. Here's the way the story begins. This is Shane Goldmacher, who's been a guest on the program, does nice work. South Carolina and Nevada have emerged as the two front runners to begin the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating calendar. But their jockeying has grown acrimonious. And pitted black and Latino party leaders against each other according to interviews with more than a dozen party officials involved in the discussions. The order of primary states deeply consequential. Different states have different upsides and downsides for the party's potential 2028 contenders and require the constructing of different political coalitions. The calendar is likely to play a significant role in deciding who ultimately emerges as the next Democratic presidential nominee, and months of private lobbying, backroom discussions and brass knuckle racial politics are bursting into the open on the eve of the gathering. And then they quote a number of people in this story, like Chris Dale Spain, who chairs the South Carolina Democratic Party. It's almost like we're running against Nevada, she said. That's what it feels like. And then she said something that tells you exactly how raw it's become. If Nevada gets elevated over South Carolina, it would be because of their Latino vote. So you would be telling black voters, you matter less than brown voters. And I refuse to believe that our party wants to send any type of message like that. Black voters versus brown voters. That's what this has come down to in the eyes of some. And you don't have to take my word for it. Here's another quote. The executive director of the South Carolina Party, Jay Parmley, who is white, said it's terribly unfortunate this process has been allowed to come down to black voters versus brown voters. And I think that's very dangerous for the party. The party has put out some standards in terms of what they're looking for relative to how the vote should rotate by region. Every time we talk about this, I feel obliged to remember the late great Bob Graham from Florida, both governor and senator and great guest and smart guy. I credit him with the NCAA bracket regional idea. Like they ought to cluster states by region and shift who goes first every four years. I like that idea. On the same day, hopefully therefore reached by the same media market, it's the Northeast or it's the Southwest or it's fill in the blank. So here's what the DNC says. The DNC has laid out some loose rules to guide the calendar selection. The party will choose at least four states to vote in February of 2028 before Super Tuesday, which usually falls in early March, with the likely addition of a bonus fifth state. One state is going to be chosen from each of four regions, the west, the south, the midwest, the northeast. That's in contrast to the Graham proposal, which would concentrate the ballots in each region. But okay, a dozen states will be applied and still be eligible, though some have Republicans in power and are unlikely to shift primary dates for Democrats. That's another thing. You got to get the Rs on the same page in some of these states.