What’s News in Markets: Inflation Cools, Oil Refiners Push Stocks Up, Reddit Joins S&P 500

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Shradha Dinesh (0:32)

Hey, listeners. It's Saturday, August 15th. I'm Shradha Dinesh for the Wall Street Journal. And this is What's News in Markets. Our look at the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Let's get to it.

It was a big week for economic data. The Labor Department reported that the annual inflation rate fell slightly in July, cooling to 3.4% while core prices rose by 2.5% over the past 12 months. That reading essentially ties February's for the lowest recorded since 2021 Wholesale prices were unchanged in July, defying predictions from economists who expected a rise.

Then, on Friday, the Commerce Department reported US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, falling short of the small increase economists had forecast. And the preliminary August reading of the University of Michigan's Monthly Consumer Sentiment Survey came in at 51, down from 55.2 in July, also falling short of economists' expectations. The survey's director said persistent price increases and concerns about the economic effects of the Iran conflict are still weighing on shoppers. Any further evidence of a weaker consumer could factor into the thinking of federal reserve policy makers who are weighing whether elevated inflation warrants raising interest rates in the months ahead. Overall, the Nasdaq was up about 0.1% for the week. The Dow fell just below 0.6% for the week, and the S&P 500 settled up at roughly 0.3% for the week.

It's not just AI stocks moving the S&P 500 higher. Old school energy companies are joining tech to push the index to new records. A series of disruptions, from the Iran War and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, to China's restrictions on fuel exports has pulled millions of barrels of refined products off global markets, leaving consumers scrambling to locate alternative supplies. As a result, refining margins, the difference between the cost of crude and the value of the fuels produced from it, have surged. With Strait of Hormuz flows unlikely to normalize anytime soon, and repairs to Gulf refineries targeted by Iranian attacks expected to take months, the market could remain tight, boosting those margins.

Globally, they are expected to remain high for the rest of the year. While that's likely to be welcome news for oil majors come earnings season, it's bad for drivers at the pump. The US average gasoline price topped $4 a gallon this year, up from $3.16 a year ago.

It's been a great quarter for earnings, both earnings growth and the so-called surprise ratio, that's the share of companies exceeding analyst expectations, are sitting near historic highs. WSJ investing columnist Spencer Jacob wrote about how that seems to be creating a strong sense of optimism among companies and how it's being reflected in their guidance. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group say the rolling average of positive to negative earnings guidance is now near a four-year high for the companies they track. That's especially notable because companies are typically cautious about raising guidance since the market tends to punish them for falling short. In fact, the only time this ratio was higher was during the pandemic recovery period.

And there's a new face joining the S&P 500 Just two years after going public, social media platform Reddit will join the index this coming Tuesday. It will replace real estate investment trust Avalon Bay Communities, which is merging with fellow S&P 500 member Equity Residential, creating an open spot. Reddit shares rose over 12% Friday. It's a turnaround for the stock, which was down nearly a third this year. On concerns, AI models would divert traffic away from Reddit's message boards. Though its stock has struggled amid the latest tech boom, Reddit is the most cited website in AI answers, according to the AI visibility data firm Parse. That's turned the platform into a core focus for brands and marketers looking to influence chatbots, according to a report from WSJ Leadership Institute reporter Katie Dayton. As of July, companies needed a market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion to be eligible for the S&P 500 Reddit cleared that bar, ending Thursday with a market cap of over $30 billion.

And now you know What's News in Markets this week. You can read about more stocks that moved on the week's news in our live markets coverage on wsj.com. Today's show was produced by Julie Chang with supervising producer Katie Ferguson. I'm Shradha Dinesh. Have a great weekend and see you next Saturday.