What’s Actually Happening in the U.S. Jobs Market?

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Luke Vargas (0:20)

Hey, What's News listeners. It's Sunday, February 15th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and this is What's News Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest stories in the news by reaching out to our colleagues across the newsroom to help explain what's happening in our world. And this week, how strong is the US labor market? A new report finds US employers just shed more jobs in January than at any point since 2009 Big businesses are announcing layoffs, and AI and automation are nipping at the heels of what feels like a lot of people's jobs. But are things really that bad? Or could they be about to get a whole lot worse? We've got a pair of journal reporters with us to answer your questions about the job market, so let's get right to it.

130,000. That's the number of jobs the US added in January, more than doubling analyst expectations, with gains in health care and social assistance roles helping to outnumber declines in government, warehousing, information and financial services. But if that data point still leaves a lot unsaid about the complex state of the jobs market, especially with new revisions to the data showing that fewer jobs were created over the last two years than previously thought, well, worry not, because we've been tracking down answers to your questions about the job market from a pair of excellent reporters. Justin Lahart covers economics for us out of New York, and from Washington, DC we're joined by workplace and careers reporter Lindsay Ellis. Justin, one thing I keep seeing readers asking about in the comments of our jobs report stories is can we even trust the numbers, implying there may be some real jobs numbers out there we're not seeing. What should we make of that sort of insinuation?

Justin Lahart (2:07)

Yeah, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not been as well funded as a lot of people would like, and it's just getting more and more complex. So we can have these situations where we have very large revisions. And we've also had coming out of the pandemic, lots of weird distortions that are hard to keep track of. Businesses don't respond to surveys like they used to. People don't respond to surveys like they used to. So we are sort of more prone to measurement error that will eventually get fixed, but it can really throw you for a loop.

Luke Vargas (2:41)

Yeah, and beyond the official statistics, there are unofficial measures out there that are flashing warning signs as well, contributing to this disconnect we see between the positive economic assessments coming from the White House and then on the other hand, how it feels to be in the labor market. Lindsay, you speak to people in all different walks of life for your reporting. I'm curious where you're hearing that tension come up.

Lindsay Ellis (3:02)

Many people who I interview who are looking for jobs say that there is this massive disconnect between what they see publicly and their own day-to-day experience.

And many of the people who I've been talking to who feel totally stuck in their careers and in their job searches are looking for corporate jobs. The growth that we're seeing is in health care and social services as we just discussed. And so if you're looking for a job in finance or in tech, a desk job in professional services, those sectors aren't seeing that kind of growth. And so in that respect, the numbers are very much reflecting the experiences of workers and job seekers who are just like, where do I go from here?

Luke Vargas (3:46)

A good reminder that not every job is created equal. White collar workers in particular might be not so satisfied with what's available out there even if they technically represent a job opening. I want to drill into one particular cohort, older Americans. This is something that was brought to our attention by a listener Bailey Doloff in Saratoga Springs, New York. He called in to describe something that he and his wife have been seeing.

Bailey Doloff (4:09)

We often notice a lot more older people working in service positions like Dunkin Donuts and CVS and our local supermarket. The last two office assistants we've had have been retirement age with the last one having to come back from retirement because they couldn't afford their bills. We are young and we are afraid that when we get older, the world isn't going to change and it's still going to be in a position where we can't retire.