Wall Street Cheers Prospect of an End to the Iran War

Jessica Mendoza (0:00)

Hey, this is Jessica Mendoza, host of The Journal Podcast, our show about money, business, and power. If you're looking for more deeply reported stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com/thejournal, all lowercase, to subscribe now.

Alex Ossola (0:23)

The S&P and The Dow had their worst quarter in nearly four years. But today, stocks rallied. We'll get into why. Plus, thousands of businesses have no idea when they'll get a refund of President Trump's tariffs.

Louise Radnofsky (0:34)

It's very clear at this point that the best case scenario is still some months before refunds do start flowing. And for some businesses, that is this existential question of whether they're able to remain open or not.

Alex Ossola (0:45)

And Unilever and McCormick are combining their food businesses, creating a sauces and spices grocery giant. It's Tuesday, March 31st. I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM Edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

Imani Moise (1:08)

Hey, I'm Imani Moise, host of What's News in Markets, and I'm kicking off the show today. Stocks closed out the quarter today with a big rally, but even with that, it was still the worst quarter in nearly four years. WSJ Markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang joins me to break down how we got here. So Hannah, when did the mood shift in markets and why?

Hannah Erin Lang (1:26)

What really dampened the mood on Wall Street was this war breaking out with Iran. This posed a huge threat to global energy markets. The investors were really concerned with the price of oil and what this was all going to mean for economic growth writ large, but also interest rates. Investors had really felt pretty good about the fact that we were going to get interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Then that totally disappeared as the conflict dragged on. Then today we have hope that that conflict might come to an end soon, and investors really pounced on that. President Donald Trump told aides that he's willing to maybe end the conflict without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Kind of an upbeat end on the final day of a pretty disappointing first quarter for markets.

Imani Moise (2:11)

What companies were benefiting from all that turmoil?

Hannah Erin Lang (2:13)

Really the only winners of the stock market have been energy stocks. Your oil and gas companies, your energy ETFs. The other beneficiaries have been domestic US companies that could benefit from these issues with global commodity supply chains. Things like Dow Inc, which is a plastic maker. Investors are expecting it to have a more of a competitive edge against international companies thanks to the fact that the US is less reliant on Middle East oil exports than competitors in Europe or in Asia.

Imani Moise (2:48)

What are going to be the key signals that investors are watching in the days ahead?

Hannah Erin Lang (2:52)

Over the course of March, so much of these broader market moves have been just based on what US officials are saying, what Iranian officials are saying. The past couple of weeks, investors were really quick to jump on good news. You're seeing that in the size of the rally today. In the coming days, what's really going to matter is whether we see progress in bringing the war to an end, but restoring the flow of energy exports. If not, based on the conversations I've had with sources is that we might see this dial back relatively quickly.

Alex Ossola (3:26)

That was Markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang speaking with What's News in Markets host Imani Moise. As you heard from Hannah, Markets soared today. The three indexes all had their best day since May. The Nasdaq rose 3.8 percent, the S&P jumped 2.9 percent, and the Dow climbed more than 1,100 points, or 2.5 percent. And Brent Crude, the international oil benchmark, surged 63 percent in March, the largest ever one-month gain in percentage terms. Brent recently traded around $104 a barrel. Oracle began laying off workers today. The full scope of the layoffs isn't clear. But some employees said internal metrics suggest thousands of roles were eliminated. Jobs were cut in the US and India. Oracle declined to comment. The cloud computing and database company is investing heavily in new data centers to support AI. Turning to consumer goods, Unilever is combining its food business with McCormick to create a grocery goods giant in a cash-in-stock deal worth over $65 billion, including debt. For McCormick, a century-old brand that started in its founder's Baltimore cellar, the deal represents its most ambitious expansion yet. McCormick CEO Brendan Foley said on an investor call this morning that the combined company's focus on flavor fit well with how consumers eat today.