U.A.E. Preparing to Help Open Strait of Hormuz By Force

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Luke Vargas (0:22)

Is the Iran War escalating or winding down? We'll get the latest as a third US aircraft carrier heads to the region. Plus, the Supreme Court takes on President Trump's push to limit US citizenship and a win in Washington's critical minerals push, even if exporting cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo is likely easier said than done.

Alexandra Wexler (0:44)

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Luke Vargas (0:58)

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After sustaining Iranian attacks for weeks, the United Arab Emirates is considering becoming a combatant in the Iran War, making it the first Persian Gulf country to do so. We're exclusively reporting that the UAE is now preparing to help the US and others to open the Strait of Hormuz by force after having assessed its ability to do things like clear the waterway of mines. With more on what could be a turning point in the war and Gulf involvement in it, I'm joined by the journal's Middle East Bureau Chief, Andrew Dowell. Drew, why now? Gulf countries have been getting hit by Iran, including the UAE, since the start of the conflict, and yet they haven't today taken the fight directly to the country. What explains this shift apparently in calculus from the UAE?

Andrew Dowell (1:57)

To this point, they've been concerned about defining themselves as a combatant because that's a posture that could outlive Trump's interest in the war and leave them at odds with a big neighbor right across the Persian Gulf for an extended period. They're looking at the situation and realizing that they are in fact a combatant, that Iran isn't just shooting at US interests in the UAE, but took aim at things like luxury hotels, iconic buildings, the airport several times, in what they consider to be a deliberate attempt to sow panic and undermine their economy and create pressure to end the war. It's not a situation they think they could live with. The other thing is that Iran is making very clear that it wants to have an extended administrative role over the Strait of Hormuz even after the war is over, which could involve charging tolls or deciding who gets to go through and doesn't get to go through, which again is just completely unacceptable to the UAE. Their economy is largely dependent on energy, which flows through the Strait of Hormuz. They have a big shipping industry, which also relies on free access through that waterway, and they get food through there. So they're trying to rally support for a military solution to change things. The journals reported that Trump is considering ending the war without resolving the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which should have a worst-case scenario.

Luke Vargas (3:13)

Tell us more about what the Emirates is considering here, which from our reporting, sounds like it kind of marries together the use of some Emirati military capabilities, but also the expenditure of the country's diplomatic capital.

Andrew Dowell (3:24)

That's right, yeah. So the main thing they're doing is lobbying for passage of a UN resolution that was introduced by Bahrain, under which the Security Council would authorize the use of force to open the Strait of Hormuz, which would give any country that wanted to participate in an effort like that, diplomatic cover or the cover of international legitimacy in order to go ahead. So that's one thing, and standing on the side of that resolution is standing on the side of military action against Iran, which is a major step for a Gulf country. And then as we've reported, they're willing to get involved. It's a small country with a small military, but they do have the potential to do things on the water, like potentially sweep mines. They are probably the best positioned country along the strait, aside from Iran, so there's the possibility of using bases. And yeah, they can provide support for the actual military combatants. I think the other thing is they're probably aware that President Trump is trying to assemble a coalition and they want to help make that happen because the goal of any effort to restore traffic through the strait and remove Iran's role of governing that traffic is very much in their interests. I think one of the bets is probably that as international pressure builds Iran's position and its claim that it will have a permanent role over traffic in the strait becomes less and less tenable in international diplomatic terms but in a strictly military consideration, it's a big job.