Traders Bet on Trump’s Next Military Move

Ryan Knutson (0:00)

Hey, it's Ryan Knutson, host of The Journal Podcast, our show about money, business, and power. If you're looking for more deeply reported stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com/thejournal, all lowercase, to subscribe now.

Luke Vargas (0:22)

Anger and finger pointing in Minneapolis after an ICE officer fatally shoots a motorist. Plus, a look at the traitors betting on President Trump's next military target.

Alexander Osipovich (0:33)

So, for example, Polymarket has a market on whether the US will strike Iran by the end of June of this year. That jumped after the attack on Venezuela this weekend. Recently, Wednesday afternoon, it was at 34 percent.

Luke Vargas (0:47)

And why users can't get enough of LinkedIn. It's Thursday, January 8th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM Edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Federal and state officials are squaring off over yesterday's shooting of a 37-year-old woman, Renee Nicole Good, by a US. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer in Minneapolis. Homeland Security Secretary Christy Noem called the killing preventable, but said Good was obstructing law enforcement and refused to obey the commands of ICE agents.

SPEAKER_2 (1:24)

It's very clear that this individual was harassing and impeding law enforcement operations. Our officer followed his training, did exactly what he's been taught to do in that situation, and took actions to defend himself and defend his fellow law enforcement officers.

Luke Vargas (1:39)

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Fry disputed that assessment in a heated press conference, telling ICE to get out of the city and accusing the agency of looking for excuses to use force.

Jacob Frey (1:50)

They are already trying to spin this as an action of self-defense. Having seen the video of myself, I want to tell everybody directly. That is bullsh-t.

Luke Vargas (2:02)

The city's police chief said that Good didn't appear to be the target of a federal law enforcement operation, saying her vehicle was blocking the road when an officer approached her on foot. The vehicle then drove off, he said, and at least two shots were fired. Good was found with a gunshot wound to the head and pronounced dead at a local hospital.

Anti-ICE protesters gathered in Minneapolis after yesterday's shooting, and demonstrations were held in other major cities. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz urged the public to protest peacefully and directed National Guard troops to prepare in case they were needed to assist state and local authorities. Back in Washington, the House is set to vote today to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years. That effort took a step forward yesterday with several Republicans crossing party lines to back the move in a procedural vote. President Trump has opposed extending the ACA subsidies, instead backing the general notion of funding health savings accounts. Meanwhile, Democrats number two in the House, Maryland's Steny Hoyer is stepping down at the end of his term. Hoyer is 86 years old and began his House career in 1981 During his time in House leadership, Democrats pushed through the Affordable Care Act and passed a massive COVID-19 relief package. Will the US acquire Greenland this year? Officials from the island are due for talks in Washington next week. How about striking Somalia by the end of January? The Trump administration just cut off all assistance to its government. Or what about playing a role in ousting Iran's supreme leader by midyear? Republican Senator Lindsey Graham just warned the Ayatollah that Trump would kill him if he didn't stop a crackdown on anti-government protesters. Well, those subjects of fevered foreign policy speculation also happen to be contracts you can purchase or bet on on crypto-based platforms like Polymarket, which we should note has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal. Joining me to discuss these prediction markets, which have been enjoying a boom in popularity lately, I'm joined by Wall Street Journal reporter Alexander Osipovich. Alex, we've talked about prediction markets a little bit here, but much more so over on our Tech News Briefing Podcast, so just remind us how they operate and what has been catching your attention about them lately.

Alexander Osipovich (4:27)

Prediction markets are actually a pretty simple idea. They are a marketplace where people can bet on future events. The way it works is they will allow you to bet on a yes or no question about some future thing happening, like will Donald Trump pick Kevin Hassett to be his next Federal Reserve Chief? And you can buy a contract saying, yes, this will happen or no, it won't happen. If you are right, you get a dollar per contract. So the price of each contract is in cents and it reflects the probability that people assess of that event. So if the contract for Trump picking Hassett is currently at 60 cents, that reflects a 60% probability in the wisdom of polymarket bettors. Okay.