Today's Poll Question: How long will the Iran ceasefire hold?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
Get ready to vote on today's daily poll question at smerconish.com.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:05)
But first, Michael explains it for you right here.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:08)
Welcome to The Smerconish Podcast from SiriusXM.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:11)
For Independent Minds.

**Michael Smerconish** (0:14)
Hello, today is Thursday, it's the 18th of June, 2026 Here's your Wednesday poll result, 28,105 voted. On this question, was 2024 already lost for Democrats before Biden dropped out? 58.46% of us, I was in the majority on this one, said yes, that was the case with a hat tip to Doug Sosnick, who was a guest on the program earlier this week. Sosnick advised President Clinton politically for a period of years, has advised any number of Democratic governors, members of Congress, universities and nonprofits, really smart guy, great radio guest. He is a partisan D, argues for the best interest of Democrats, and felt the need to respond to things that have been said recently about what went wrong for the Ds in 2024 Jill out on the sort of book promotion trail, the Democrats having released an ill-formed draft copy of their autopsy, which sparked a lot of controversy. And Sosnick says, look, in a Washington Post essay, here's the reason that Kamala Harris lost in 2024
She lost because A, Biden should never have said he was going to run again.
He was elected in 2020 as a bridge to the future, kind of lost sight of the fact that he was elected as a rejection of Donald Trump, not because he was being embraced, and should have recognized that he needed to be a one-term president. Second, immigration, porous borders, came back to haunt Kamala Harris. And third, Democrats' success in the 2022 midterm on the heels of Roe vs. Wade being overturned masked the age concerns that the electorate already had about Biden, such that by the time he got out, it was already baked in that Trump was going to win the election. So that's his explanation. I hold fast to what I said during the course of the election and its aftermath. It was the economy. It was immigration.
It was also Trump being able to portray himself as having been victimized as the subject of four different indictments, which seemed political. If they'd gone with one, like the January 6 indictment, it could have been effective, but it was just too much. It was piling on. It was piling on. So that was yesterday's poll result. Here's today's poll question. It kind of had to be this. How long will the Iran ceasefire hold? I give you three choices. Less than six months, six months to a year, more than a year. How long will it hold? I'm going with more than a year. Yeah, there are going to be some skirmishes. Israel, Hezbollah. But basically, as between the United States and Iran, I think it holds. And I'll explain why in just a moment.
So last night, this is kind of crazy. I found myself rooting for Ghana against Panama, because I'm just using these World Cup matches as a backdrop for going about my work and my writing and my reading. And I rooted for Ghana. Ghana ended up winning 1-0. Yeah, 1-0 they won. And why did I root for Ghana? A, because I like their jerseys, and B, because they are the minnow.

**SPEAKER_4** (3:42)
Come on now.

**Michael Smerconish** (3:43)
They're the minnow.

**SPEAKER_4** (3:44)
Come on.

**Michael Smerconish** (3:45)
I think they're the minnow against Panama.

**SPEAKER_4** (3:47)
You are amazing.

**Michael Smerconish** (3:48)
And they were so excited to get that goal.

**SPEAKER_4** (3:50)
You're totally into this.

**Michael Smerconish** (3:51)
It came very late. It came very late in the match. So get some skin in the game while you're enjoying the quote unquote world soccer tournament. Yes, playing games all over the country. It's fun. It is fun. I'm telling you.
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