The Republican Strategy to Salvage the Midterms

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That's a mouthful.

Michael Barbaro (0:31)

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today, the Republican strategy to win the midterms and how it's playing out in spending, advertising, televised candidate debates, and personal attacks. I spoke with three of my colleagues, political reporters Shane Goldmacher, Lisa Lerer, and Nate Cohn.

It's Thursday, October 15th. Lisa and Shane and Nate, thank you for joining this campaign roundtable. Appreciate it.

Lisa Lerer (1:15)

Thanks for having us.

Shane Goldmacher (1:17)

Woohoo.

Michael Barbaro (1:18)

I appreciate that. Woohoo, Shane.

Shane Goldmacher (1:19)

Big energy.

Michael Barbaro (1:21)

So loyal listeners of The Daily will recall that we have spent a lot of time on the show in the past few weeks talking about democratic momentum in these midterm elections, especially in traditionally red states. We've talked about the fact that Democrats are favored, not by a lot, but favored to win both the House and the Senate based on our own polling. But today, we want to focus on the Republican strategy for winning these midterms and the potential electoral path to a Republican victory.

And so Shane, let me start with you. Can you summarize, based on your reporting, what the Republican strategy for victory is, and I guess just clarify what would even constitute a Republican triumph in this election?

Shane Goldmacher (2:10)

Yeah, I mean, I think that the Republican strategy for victory right now in the House doesn't really look like victory. It looks like keeping their losses to be in the minority, but not by a lot. This week, they made a number of changes to their ad reservations that basically seeded two more current Republican-held seats after they seeded one last week.

Michael Barbaro (2:33)

They're seeding sufficient races to let you know that they've given up on the math of the House.

Shane Goldmacher (2:40)

You don't give up on your incumbents unless things are looking bad. People are saying this is to stave off deeper potential losses. In the House, victory might mean losing by less. It's not actually holding the majority at this moment.

It's a totally different story in the Senate where Republicans very much have a chance to hold their majority.

They're doing so by competing in a number of traditionally red states. The map has gotten deeper into their territory, but it still is favoring the Republicans such that they can win. If they hold states, they typically win in.

Michael Barbaro (3:17)

So the Republican strategy is to protect this majority, really, in the Senate. And I have to imagine that a big way that it does that, we've talked about it in past episodes, is by tapping into this extraordinary financial advantage that the Republican Party has in these midterms over Democrats. And I wonder how it is using that money, Lisa.

Lisa Lerer (3:38)

Right. Well, part of how they're trying to circle the wagons, as Shane said, is by just dumping money into these races. Texas has seen just an extraordinary influx of Republican money, and they are just pounding the airwaves with ads, largely linking Democrats to the more progressive socialist wing of their party. I think most of it is negative on Democrats. There's some effort also to tout some economic improvements made by President Trump, but most of this is a negative campaign against Democrats, and a focus also on crime and threats to personal safety. But yeah, the main thing Republicans have going for them here, along with the map, is the extreme financial advantage they have over Democrats. It's really raised the question for Democrats of, can you beat out beat 10 to 1? And so in a race, can you beat out beat in spending 1,000 to 1?

That's something that this election will help show us the answer to.

Michael Barbaro (4:32)

Shane, how do you think about that?

Shane Goldmacher (4:33)

I just think about, you know, Lisa brought up Texas.

This is the state where you see the biggest disparity in spending so far. Republicans have outspent Democrats by something like $175 million.

Michael Barbaro (4:47)

In favor of Ken Paxton, Senate Republican candidate, over James Tallarico, the Democratic Senate candidate.