The New York Governor's Race Heats Up

Brian Lehrer (0:10)

It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. So we're now in the post-Labor Day home stretch of the election campaigns. We talked about it yesterday with respect to some things about the national race to control Congress. Today, we'll go local with a Wednesday after Labor Day look at the New York state governor's race between Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman. No Republican has won a statewide election in New York since Governor George Pataki in 2002 But four years ago in 2022, Governor Hochul got an unexpected scare when she beat Lee Zeldin by only single digits. This year, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is trying to climb that mountain in a year when his closeness with President Trump might be more of a drag on his candidacy than a plus. But a year when Governor Hochul is the kind of centrist who may not inspire the biggest turnout of her party's base in a year when that might matter more than usual. A Republican-leaning pollster has Hochul leading by just four points. A Democratic-leaning one has her up by 16

The nonpartisan Sienna College poll last month had Hochul at plus 10 But that was down from plus 20 in the Sienna poll in June. So that's a little horse race context. Let's talk about the issues and play some clips of each.

And talk about what's at stake with WNYC and Gothamist New York State Issues reporter, Jimmy Vielkind. Hey, Jimmy, thanks for coming on.

Jimmy Vielkind (1:41)

Good morning, Brian. Always a pleasure.

Brian Lehrer (1:43)

Let's start with a clip of each first. Here's a Hochul ad trying to show she has lived the regular New Yorkers life and she gets the economic concerns of regular New Yorkers. Here we go.

Kathy Hochul (1:58)

My first job was at a Buffalo Pizzeria after school until closing five nights a week. Money was tight, so many of my paychecks went right back to my family. And I never forgot that. So when I became governor, I cut middle class taxes, got free meals into our schools and took on the utility companies raising your bills. Because I know what it feels like to stretch every penny. And it's why as your governor, your family will always be my fight.

Order up.

Still got it.

Brian Lehrer (2:28)

In front of the pizza place saying order up. Still got it as somebody worked at a pizza place, one of Governor Hochul's campaign commercials. Here's Bruce Blakeman on Fox touting that Republican leaning poll I mentioned and trying to portray Hochul as not for average New Yorkers.

Bruce Blakeman (2:47)

The reason why it's so close and the reason why I will be the next Governor of New York, is that wherever I go in New York, people are miserable. We're the most overtaxed state in the United States of America. Our electric bills are 70 percent higher than the national average, and Kathy Hochul is the most pro criminal governor in the United States. Every major criminal justice initiative is designed to make it easier for criminals to prey on our communities.

Brian Lehrer (3:16)

Blakeman on Fox. So, Jimmy, how much would you say those clips are representative of how each of them is running?

Jimmy Vielkind (3:22)

Well, I think that clip of Blakeman really hits it on the head. He is trying to seize on issues of crime, and he closely intertwines that with issues of illegal immigration.

Bruce Blakeman is often talking about undocumented immigrants or people who have crossed the border illegally, who then are arrested for accused crimes in New York, and as Blakeman says, all those people should not be here, etc. So, every time there is a high-profile criminal incident or a high-profile crime, just think last week, the shooting in Times Square, it penetrates with the public consciousness and it gives him an opening to say, see, see, things are out of control, even though statistics both by the NYPD and around the state show that crime has broadly fallen across serious crimes, especially after a post-pandemic spike. So, in some ways, this is something of a retread of the message that Lee Zeldin used in 2022 when he came, as you said, closer than anyone expected to beating Hochul. I think it was a six-point margin. But the numbers and the environment is different than it was in 2022 Again, that post-pandemics crime spike has really receded quite a bit.

Brian Lehrer (4:45)

We'll hear from each candidate some more shortly. But on the Hochul ad, is that part of the way she's trying to run on affordability? That word, as Democrats generally are this year, she cited cutting middle-class taxes, putting free meals in schools, and taking on what she called utility companies, raising your bills. How central are those specifics to her campaign? Does she get specific?