The Fuel Crisis Is Here. Do You Know What It's Actually Costing You? | The Long Haul

Adam Wingfield (0:00)

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That's what a gallon of diesel fuel costs nationally as of September 16th, 2026 And that's not California. That's not the West Coast. That's the national average. California has already passed $8 a gallon. And then six months ago, diesel was just sitting at $3.72. That's just six months ago. So that means in less than half a year, every carrier in this country has watched their single largest operating cost increase by nearly 70 percent. And the reason it happened, so you look at the US-Iran conflict that closed the Strait of Hormuz, that took roughly 14 million barrels a gallon of oil per day off of the global market, it doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon. So I'm doing this episode solo today, because this isn't a guest conversation. This is, I'm just talking to the carriers out there, and that's this type of conversation. If you're running trucks right now and you haven't sat down and recalculated what this fuel environment is actually costing you per mile, per load, per month, this episode is going to be for you. So let's get on into it. If you run your business on guest work, you're putting yourself in a bad position before the wheels even turn. Right now, more than ever, who you align your business with matters. One thing I've always been a big fan of is transparency, whether it's knowing your numbers, knowing your lanes, and knowing exactly what you're getting to before you even book a load. That's why Amazon Relay stands out. Up front rates, unlimited mileage, accurate mileage, and real appointment times, these are the things you can actually make a decision based on facts and not just assumptions. Whether you have box trucks, drive vans, it doesn't matter. What matters is you're operating with clarity and consistency. So if you're serious about building something sustainable and not just chasing whatever pops up, make sure you go to relay.amazon.com and check it out.

Welcome to The Long Haul, the podcast dedicated to empowering small carriers and owner-operators to drive their business forward. I'm your host, Adam Wingfield, bringing you insights from industry leaders, real-world success stories, and strategies to help you navigate the road to profitability. Whether you're just getting started or looking to take your fleet to the next level, this is the show where trucking meets opportunity. So buckle up.

Welcome back to The Long Haul. No guest today. It's just me and a calculator. I've been watching the fuel situation unfold since late February, when the Iran conflict started and the Strait of Hormuz closed. At that point, diesel was around 372 nationally. By mid-March, it had crossed a $5 mark for the first time since late 2022 By early September, it crossed 585, which was a new all-time record, passing the June 2022 peak. And as of this week, we crossed 629

So let me be clear about what that means. This is not the 2022 fuel spike.

So that fuel spike was driven by pandemic-era supply and demand disruption. Obviously, during that time, there was the Ukraine-Russia circumstance. This one is a little different. The Strait of Hume moves closure took 14% of projected global oil supply off the market in a matter of days. Some analysts are warning that this could persist well in the 2027, and one of the experts said that tanker daily rates just crossed $800,000 per day. Insurance on oil tankers now are at an all-time high, so none of this can resolve very quickly.

Diesel was sitting roughly at $3.72 per gallon before a war in Iran started back in February. Prices have since risen to a nationwide average record of over $6 per gallon and beyond. So let me tell you how it happened. Since late February 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran War disrupted roughly 20 percent of the world's supply. So what that did, that triggered a global economic downturn and fuel storage shortages. The Strait closure took 14 million barrels per day off of the global market, which is roughly 14 percent of projected global supply. And in doing so, it sent diesel up 58 percent and jet fuel up 106 percent year over year. Now, when you look at Middle Eastern crude, it yields more diesel and jet fuel per barrel than US crude. So relief will be slow even after fighting stops. The EIA expects restarting production and refining can take months, meaning that the elevated diesel prices could persist well into the recovery.