Super El Niño, Measles, Iran War Stalemate

**Ayesha Rascoe** (0:02)
An unusually powerful El Nino this year has shattered records for air and sea surface temperatures.

**Scott Simon** (0:09)
The climate phenomenon has already caused crop failures and droughts. It hasn't peaked yet.

**Ayesha Rascoe** (0:14)
I'm Ayesha Rascoe.

**Scott Simon** (0:15)
And I'm Scott Simon, and this is Up First from NPR News. El Nino has long been a cause of climate chaos, forming in warm waters over the Pacific Ocean. So far this year, it's changed the weather from Germany to India.

**Ayesha Rascoe** (0:30)
And two deaths associated with the measles outbreak in Pennsylvania have called into question the anti-vaccination crusade of Health Secretary Robert F.

**Scott Simon** (0:40)
Kennedy Jr. Finally, it's been six months since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran. With very little to show for it, what could eventually end the war?

**Ayesha Rascoe** (0:49)
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**Scott Simon** (2:01)
It's hot, it's dry, and normal weather patterns are haywire. El Nino is back in all its disruptive power.

**Ayesha Rascoe** (2:09)
This year, it's being called a super El Nino.
NPR's Lauren Summer covers climate and joins us now. Hi, Lauren.

**Lauren Summer** (2:17)
Hey, Ayesha.

**Ayesha Rascoe** (2:18)
So how exactly does an El Nino work, and how does it affect the planet?

**Lauren Summer** (2:24)
So it's actually a natural cycle that the Earth goes through, and it happens when there's just this huge amount of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.
That releases a lot of heat to the atmosphere, and it has these really far-reaching ripple effects. It can change weather patterns dramatically, and that could mean lack of rain and drought in some places, and then extreme rain and flooding in other places.

**Ayesha Rascoe** (2:48)
And what makes this particular El Nino a super El Nino?

**Lauren Summer** (2:54)
Yeah, it's like super, super-duper El Nino. Some people are calling it like a Godzilla El Nino, but really officially, federal forecasters say it's a very strong El Nino. And I talked to Julia Cole about why that is. She's a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.

**Julia Cole** (3:11)
Right now, we're looking at an El Nino developing across the tropical Pacific that is stronger than any other El Nino has been at this time of year. These temperatures are still rising. And so we expect that this El Nino that's developing now is going to be a historic, probably a record-breaking El Nino.

**Lauren Summer** (3:31)
And El Ninos tend to peak at the end of the year, so this one is still strengthening, and the impacts could last for months after that.

**Ayesha Rascoe** (3:39)
What could those impacts look like here in the US.?

**Lauren Summer** (3:42)
First thing is heat. It'll raise temperatures globally. I mean, the hottest years on record are usually El Nino years. And remember, this El Nino is on top of climate change. The planet is already about two and a half degrees Fahrenheit hotter from burning fossil fuels, so this year or next year, most likely, could become the hottest year on record. And then the other major risk is related to rainfall. In the US., El Nino years usually bring more intense rain to the southern half of the US., and that could mean destructive flooding. The northern half of the US gets drier too, so that's a big deal in the inner mountain west, which had low snowfall last year and is in a drought right now.

**Ayesha Rascoe** (4:23)
We know that climate change is already raising the risk of natural disasters generally. Is climate change also increasing the chances of creating super El Ninos like this?

**Lauren Summer** (4:37)
Yeah, that's actually been a tough question to figure out scientifically, because this is a very complex climate pattern. But a new study just came out about that. Cole and her colleagues put together a record of past El Ninos by looking at coral skeletons in the Galapagos.