Special Edition: The Midterms – Stakes, Strategy & Swing Races

Nathan Gonzales (0:00)

People need to understand, there are going to be a lot of close races. If there's somebody out there who is wavering on whether to vote or not, is my vote going to matter or not, I would say, vote.

Erica Mandy (0:12)

Today is Saturday, October 17th. We are now just over two weeks away from the midterm elections. Control of Congress is on the line alongside many other local races. And as you just heard, there are a lot of close ones to keep an eye on. So why does this year matter so much? And what's getting voters to the polls or not? We have lots to talk about, so we're joined by Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of races for Congress, governor and president. He's also the co-host of the Inside Elections podcast and an elections analyst for CQ Roll Call. He spent years analyzing election results for national news outlets as well. So today, he's breaking down the Democratic and Republican strategies, the battleground states and races he's watching most closely, how AI is already changing campaigns and the information voters see, and what to watch for as the results start coming in.

Welcome to The NewsWorthy Special Edition Saturday, when we sit down with a different expert or celebrity every Saturday to talk about something in the news. Don't forget to tune in every Monday through Friday for our regular episodes, where we provide all the day's news in less than 15 minutes. I'm Erica Mandy. It's now time for today's Special Edition Saturday.

Nathan Gonzales, thank you so much for joining us here on The NewsWorthy.

Nathan Gonzales (1:30)

Absolutely. Great to be here.

Erica Mandy (1:32)

Let's just start briefly with the big picture. How would you like to summarize this election season? And also, what's standing out the most to you?

Nathan Gonzales (1:41)

It looks like we're headed for what I would call a typical midterm election, and that is when the president is unpopular or when his job approval rating is low. We usually see a backlash from voters or voters say, we need people from the other party to come to Washington and kind of rein in what's going on.

So we're really talking about, will this be a good year for Democrats or a great year? And a lot of that depends on Republican turnout.

If they can boost Republican turnout here in the final few weeks, then they could limit some of their losses. But if Republican turnout is low, we're talking about big gains for Democrats in both the House and the Senate.

Erica Mandy (2:16)

It's weird to hear you say something as typical these days.

Nathan Gonzales (2:21)

Well, and that's, but that is a great point, that there is the perception that President Trump, because he was a surprise winner in 2016, that the normal laws of political gravity in our country no longer apply to him.

And I would argue that's not the case, that 2016 was a legitimate surprise, but in 2018, when he was an unpopular president, Democrats gained 40 seats in the House. In 2020, when the president was unpopular and ran for reelection, he lost. And in 2024, when he ran, he was actually the outsider in running against an unpopular Democratic administration.

Erica Mandy (2:58)

Yeah, and to your point, I mean, that enthusiasm especially matters in midterms. You know, turnout is obviously typically bigger during a presidential election. So what do you see when you look at the motivation currently of Republican voters and which party is more motivated right now two weeks out?

Nathan Gonzales (3:16)

What we're seeing right now is an apathetic Republican base. And I think what Republicans are struggling with is that they may have supported the president in the last three elections, but right now they are feeling an economic pinch that the president's, either things he's done or hasn't done, are really impacting all of America and they are wrestling with.

I'm disappointed with the lack of an economic rebound, but also I don't want Democrats in control. If they choose not to vote, because they just can't stomach voting for Democrats, that still matters and if Republican turnout is depressed, that helps Democrats because Democratic enthusiasm is high. Democratic turnout is going to be high. Independent voters turnout is going to be high because they're frustrated with the direction of the country.

Erica Mandy (4:03)

So what issues are mattering the most right now to voters on both sides?

Nathan Gonzales (4:09)

Like many of our elections, this is about the economy. And under the economy are a lot of things. It's fuel prices, it's cost of living. It's also the war or conflict with Iran is an economic issue, right? It's impacting those gas prices and the cost of goods. And so if that is the focus of these elections, Republicans are going to be held responsible for those things because they're in charge right now.