Special Edition: Sick Season Starts Now

Katelyn Jetelina (0:00)

Flu is early this year, which is so weird, but it is, it is here.

Erica Mandy (0:07)

Today is Saturday, October 10th, and Sick Season is already getting underway. As you just heard, flu is showing up earlier than usual, COVID is still circulating, RSV will likely follow. And at the same time, there's a lot of confusion about vaccines, so-called immunity boosters, and what guidance people should actually follow. So today, we're sorting through what matters most right now for you and your family. We're joined once again by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and one of the country's leading scientific communicators. She publishes the widely read Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter, and she's an adjunct professor at the Yale School of Public Health. She's also advised multiple CDC directors, and was named to Time's list of the most influential people in health. Today, you'll hear what the data is already telling us about this year's flu season, how to think about COVID and RSV, and what to make of the recent plague scare out of Russia. Plus, which steps can actually help you and your family this sick season versus what's mostly just hype.

Welcome to the Newsworthy Special Edition Saturday, when we sit down with a different expert or celebrity every Saturday to talk about something in the news. Don't forget to tune in every Monday through Friday for our regular episodes, where we provide all the day's news in less than 15 minutes. I'm Erica Mandy, it's now time for today's Special Edition Saturday.

Katelyn Jetelina, thank you so much for joining us here on The Newsworthy again.

Katelyn Jetelina (1:29)

Thanks for having me, excited to be here.

Erica Mandy (1:32)

So let's just start big picture, what you're watching most closely right now. Is it flu, COVID, RSV, something else?

Katelyn Jetelina (1:38)

I mean, I'm an epidemiologist, right? Like I look at all these metrics and those are the big three we really pay attention to is COVID, RSV, and flu. Flu is early this year, which is so weird, but it is, it is here. It's not just the United States, it's early in the UK and Japan as well. What I would say is that COVID, we had a summer wave, we're on our way down that summer wave, COVID's not gone, but the waves are getting smaller over time. But also what's really interesting to me because COVID comes from a family of common colds, coronaviruses are common colds. And so I think one big question us epidemiologists have is, is this moving towards a common cold eventually? And maybe we are, we're not there yet, but I do see that pattern.

And RSV just really hasn't been stirring yet.

Erica Mandy (2:34)

So let's talk about flu for a second because there was already a small outbreak at my son's school, and I was surprised. It felt so early. Most people had not gotten their vaccines at the time. This was in September.

What's the data showing specifically about flu? What are we learning from other countries who may have gotten this season's flu already? Yeah.

Katelyn Jetelina (2:54)

So flu metrics are all ticking up in exponential spread, meaning we're in flu season. It started up ticking about four weeks before we typically see it. And because of that, it means that we have to get vaccinated earlier. The typical saying is flu before boo, flu before Halloween. I'm just not convinced that that is early enough. Like go schedule your appointment now. Flu is one of those really unpredictable viruses. And that's why we always are worried about flu with like, do I dare say it the next pandemic? What we can do as epidemiologists that we often do is look to the southern hemisphere and how their patterns looked because their winters are summer and vice versa. And so this flips the weather and how and when viruses thrive, which means we can look for clues to what to expect with flu in the north. And flu was early in a few countries.

What a lot of countries in the southern hemisphere also experienced was a wave of more people seeking health care compared to previous years. It doesn't really change what we're doing other than getting vaccinated early.

Erica Mandy (4:04)

And does that mean anything if we get vaccinated earlier for late season or if it starts earlier, it usually ends earlier? What's the truth there?

Katelyn Jetelina (4:13)

Oh man, I mean, you're asking for a crystal ball in flu and like, if I had a guess, I would say it's just going to be an earlier wave. With flu every year, it'll usually infect about 10% of the US population, and then we usually see a later wave of flu B, a different strain.