ROLLUP: The Bull Market Test | Clarity Dies | SEC Opens the Door | Hyperliquid Comes Onshore

David (0:04)

Bankless Nation, it is the 3rd week of September. It is bullish once again. Clarity died, but all the crypto prices are higher. Just 21 hours later, after Clarity dies, the SEC ships the Innovation Exemption, a legal lane for tokenized stocks, effective immediately.

So crypto lost, but we're winning. We still are winning. The tokens are up, we're getting what we wanted. It is a bullish season in crypto.

Ryan (0:32)

It was actually double bearish news last week for crypto, and yet prices are up-ish. The Fed also hiked. This is the first time since 2022

Fed Chair Warsh moved the rates up. My question coming to this week was, how mad was Trump about this? We'll talk about that. Also, David, you think options might be the next big thing in DeFi? I want you to tell us why.

David (0:56)

Potentially, yes. And then Kraken is bringing Hyperliquid to America via a compliant front end for Hyperliquid onshore. Basically, Hyperliquid with a CFTC license in front of it. Is this how perps make it onshore in the United States? That and so much more to talk about. But I think, Ryan, I think the way to summarize the last week in crypto is just very strong confirmation of a bull market. And the reason why is that good news is making prices go up and bad news is not mattering. And then we saw this in the two things we talked about.

We had the rate hike. We had the clarity failing.

Prices are either flat or higher than both of those events prior. And so this is just a telltale sign of the bull market is that the market is sensitive to good news and it is insensitive to bad news. And I think that is just even further confirmation that we are in the earliest innings of a bull market.

Ryan (1:57)

Well, Eric Conner, Crypto Investor agrees with you, David. This was his tweet. Kind of nice to flush the double bad news of no clarity and rate hike in the same day, to be honest. Yeah, I think I see that, especially clarity. Although one might argue, to push on that a little bit, both were kind of priced in. I mean, who in crypto actually thought clarity would pass? And then as to rate hikes, I mean, the market was expecting rate hikes to actually increase. And so maybe no surprise there. It's not like QQQ or S&P took a nose dive on the back of this news.

There is a price band that TDR, Michael Nadeau is watching for confirmation of the early bull market. And he's got two numbers here. Basically, if we stay trading in these two numbers, he feels like we are pretty close to confirming the crypto bull market. And this is Bitcoin price numbers. So the number, you're like this David, 699K. All right.

So if we stay from 699K to 804K, we stay in that band, we should be good to go. Both those numbers represent moving averages. So 699K, that's the 200-day moving average, and the 80K number, that's the 50-week. We stay in that band, we're still undecided, it's not breaking bearish. If we go up higher and we start breaking the 50-week in a decisive direction, and we sustain that over multiple weeks, he thinks from a price momentum perspective, that's kind of early bull market confirmed. So we're in this middle period of like, we don't know yet.

David (3:47)

Oh, interesting. Okay, so he is saying that so long as we don't go down, we are allowed to be bullish. And then he's waiting and patiently waiting for us to break through $80,400 on Bitcoin to confirm a bull market. But he's saying that like, if we hold, it's still bullish?

Ryan (4:06)

He's saying if we hold and we don't break down, then the probability points that the low was in on June 30th of this year. And we're not going to lower lows.

David (4:19)

I see.

I did invite Ben Cowen on the podcast for when he gets back from New Zealand, because I want to ask him this exact same question. It's like we bounced off the 200 week, Bitcoin bounced off the 200 week. It does that all the time in bear markets. Sometimes it does it twice. And if it does it a second time, that means we are going down to the high 60s, I believe, 65, 66,000, which I think at least the participants on crypto Twitter are not positioned for that move.

Ryan (4:49)

One thing you observed to me is that blue chips on the week, there were some of flats, they're not down on this double dose of bad news. But actually we've had some non blue chip coins massively outperform lately, particularly on the week. So Zcash all time highs, am I correct in that?