ROLLUP: The Bull Market is On? | Zcash & NEAR | Kalshi Wash Trading | BlackRock Goes Onchain

SPEAKER_1 (0:04)

Bankless Nation, it is the 4th week of September, and we've got a bull market on our hands.

It's a bull market, but whose bull market is it? That is the question. The majors are up a little bit this week, while the middle of the market is up 30%, 40%, 50% in just seven days. So what's going on? Even crypto guru Ben Cowan has said that the bull market is on. We're going to talk about, we're going to dissect the current state of the bull market.

SPEAKER_2 (0:33)

Yeah, I think once Ben says it's on, he's been bearish lately. Once he says it's on, that's confirmation enough for me. We also got to discuss Zcash at a near 10 year high.

I think that's a fundamental change in the market, and I want to get your take on it. Also, David, tell me about Kalshi. They got cooked this week. There was a bunch of wash trading, a million identical $5,500 trades. The Wall Street Journal is talking about this. Some guy on Twitter is talking about this. And also, I saw Vitalik has blessed a prediction market called TruO. That token was up a lot. He said, this is the prediction market without any of the Corpo slop. So we'll discuss what that means.

SPEAKER_1 (1:19)

Meanwhile, as we discuss the 30 year treasury, the 10 year treasury are all printing their highest yields since like 2004 Not only is it a crypto bull market, but it's also a bond yield bull market, which is bad. Usually that's bad. Do we care? Does Bitcoin even care about high yields? I think that's another question that I want to ask. Let's just look at the charts. However, Bitcoin made its first leg up from like $63,000 up to $78,000.

And people weren't totally sure if that was a head fake or not. But we have since made a second leg up from about $77,000 up to $85,000.

And now people think it's on. I also think it's on. The second leg up off the 200 week moving average, I think is a pretty big deal. That marks a eight month high on Bitcoin, the highest prices since January of this year. And so the people who have previously been saying that there is going to be a fourth quarter dump, we're not done through the bear market, we're going to once again touch the 200 week moving average once again in fourth quarter, maybe even go below it. Those people are starting to change their tune.

SPEAKER_2 (2:30)

Yeah, I think there's starting to be growing consensus, even among the crypto cycle investor experts, people like Michael Nato from TDR.

SPEAKER_1 (2:38)

You mean the four year cyclers?

SPEAKER_2 (2:40)

The four year cyclers.

Michael Nato from TDR, I would say is one of them.

Ben Cohen also from Into the Cryptoverse is another one of them. And both of them are aligning and saying that the weight of probability is exactly where they'd want to see it for calling an early bull market. In fact, we'll get to Ben in a second because he's kind of flipped on this. He was holding out. He thought we were still in the bear market, that there would be another leg down, that we wouldn't see a light at the end of the tunnel until sometime in October. He's on this week. He's apparently changed his mind on this. But Michael Nato, I talked to him on Wednesday for the TDR podcast and he said, I'm ready to say it now. He was previous weeks, he was cautious that this was an early bull market. He was saying he wasn't sure yet, but now he's at 85 percent probability. I think there was a number of metrics that really nailed that to him. One is the Golden Cross was confirmed. For people who don't know what a Golden Cross is, that's when the 200-day moving average, the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average. If that finally happened in previous cycles, that has indicated that we have broken the back of the bear market, and we've entered the early bull phase. He has some other reasons that he thinks we're in the early bull market. So there's a reset in the holder structure. He follows these on-chain metrics of the cohorts, the cost base of the cohorts, and which cost bases are holding what coins, where you see this process of coin cycling from weak hands back to strong hands, and the strong hands form the base for the next market. Anyway, that reset has completed. Now we've got a bunch of strong hands in the 56k to 92k range of Bitcoin. 37% of all supply now sits there. So we've gone through that cycle. We have a reset and leverage. You know, Michael Saylor Strategies, STRC, that's back trading at almost 100 And that is a belt weather for leverage. A lot of the leverage got flushed out during this bear cycle. We have a bunch of the KPIs that were hit. So, you know, realized losses as a percentage of change in realized cap, those types of things, supply and profit. All of the KPIs, they'd say, would be bear market bottom indicators. The majority of those were hit. We just hit the Golden Cross. And then this, we reclaimed the 50-week moving average. We did that two to three months from the cycle load. That's exactly what we would expect to see. And the 50-week moving average right now is 788K.