On-again/off-again Gaza deal joins on-again/off-again Iran war

**Brian Lehrer** (0:05)
From WNYC, I'm Brian Lehrer. This is my Daily Politics Podcast. It's Monday, August 3rd.
The on again, off again, on again, off again, on again, off again, biggest military campaign since World War II is off again today. And less reported, but just essential to the overall situation, a deal Donald Trump says was on for Hamas to disarm and Israel to leave Gaza, just announced it last week. Deal that he says was on for Hamas to disarm and Israel to leave Gaza now appears to be not on.
The bigger picture, Trump's quagmire for the US continues with no apparent way out. The even bigger picture, according to our guest, who's about to join us, the new Middle East that's emerging from this war looks a lot like the old Middle East that Trump and Israel and some of the Gulf states have been trying to create since 2023 Of course, the Middle East that looks the same as before means more war, which means the deaths, the wounds, the displacements of so many more people, overwhelmingly Arab and Iranian deaths in these last three years, 70,000 plus in Gaza, the generally reported death toll there, but also the estimated 1200 Israelis killed in the October 7th, 2023 Hamas attack, of course. More than 4,000 Lebanese people killed in Israel's attacks there this year, according to the Lebanese government.
Iran says 3,000 of its people this year in the US Israeli strikes, plus the estimated 18 US service members. Each party has also suffered so many injuries. You know, the injuries are always less reported than the deaths. The Pentagon recently acknowledged more than 600 US service members wounded. Did that stat even make it to your news feeds? And yet all sides go on like this. With us now is F. Gregory Gause III, Professor Emeritus at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and Associate Fellow at the Middle East Institute. He's written three books about the Middle East. His new article in Foreign Affairs Magazine, which drew our attention, is called The New Old Middle East. The New Old Middle East. Professor Gause, thanks for joining us. Welcome to WNYC.

**F. Gregory Gause III** (2:34)
It's my pleasure.

**Brian Lehrer** (2:36)
We'll talk about the news of the weekend and your bigger picture cake. First, there was all this reporting last week that with the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz showing no signs of resolution, Trump might actually mean it this time. I saw multiple networks say some version of Trump would actually mean it this time when he said the US would start attacking Iran in a major way again. But then over the weekend, he said this.

**SPEAKER_3** (3:00)
We had an attack that would be the biggest attack since World War II, and it would have been disasters with them, and they didn't want us to do it. And frankly, Saudi Arabia didn't want it either. They thought that the deal is imminent.

**Brian Lehrer** (3:18)
Saudi Arabia thought that a deal is imminent. How many times have we heard the deal is imminent or a deal? Professor Gause, what do you make of the latest threat and withdrawal of the threat? We have seen some version of this so many times now.

**F. Gregory Gause III** (3:32)
It's certainly not new.
The way I look at President Trump's conduct of this conflict is that every day is an improvisation, and he likes to be the center of attention. There's no question about that, and he likes to be inconsistent. We know that his bargaining style is to try to keep the other side off balance by not being predictable. But in this context, I think not being predictable has really lowered his credibility. I think the Iranians are basically unimpressed with these big threats of wiping out their infrastructure and all this kind of thing, the biggest attack since World War II. I just don't think that people believe it. And most importantly, I don't think that his adversary Iran believes it.
And I don't think anybody believes the president when he says that the parameters of a deal, I think he said the perimeters of a deal are apparent. The Saudis are not mediating this conflict. They wouldn't know if some kind of deal is imminent. What I think the Saudis feared is that if there were a major American attack on Iran, the Iranians would respond as they have this entire war, with attacks on Saudi Arabia, on the smaller Gulf States, on the energy infrastructure. We've seen that their attacks have now extended to Jordan and even to Egypt, to energy ports in Egypt, where ships have been set on fire by drones that the Iranians don't claim. But who else would be launching these drones but Iran or some of its proxies?