Oil Spikes Past $90 on Iran Tensions, Bitcoin Call Spreads Target $72K Before Fed

**Capital Copilot** (0:00)
Welcome to Stock Market Today, your market briefing with actionable insights on stocks, bonds, crypto, and the events moving markets.
Let's get into it. Bitcoin trades at $64,590, essentially flat, but the macro backdrop is anything but calm.
Oil spiked 4% to $91 per barrel, a sprint as US military strikes enter their ninth consecutive day. That's inflation risk threatening to keep the Fed's hands tied, even as June CPY crashed negative 0.4%.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the flashpoint for global commerce. Institutional crypto traders are positioning aggressively. Deribit just saw $2.5 billion in notional Bitcoin call spreads targeting $70,000 to $72,000 by July 31st, the day after the Fed's July 29th rate decision. Current probability, 75% to 80% chance the Fed holds rates. This is size capital positioning for a post-Fed rally. Tech earnings are your macro catalyst this week.
Alphabet reports Tuesday, Tesla Wednesday, Intel Thursday. Bitcoin miners pivoted to AI infrastructure, so their survival depends on sustained AI capex. If earnings show revenue and cash flow, risk on continues. If capex stumbles, expect crypto weakness. Moonshot, AI's Kimi model, triggered a semiconductor sell-off Friday that rippled through crypto. Stablecoin adoption is now operational. Japan's Az-Com Marua, an Amazon logistics partner with 1.4 billion in annual revenue, plans to pay 2,300 business partners in JPYC stablecoin. That's instant settlement, zero fees, and Japan's first large-scale corporate stablecoin use. MicroStrategy raised 263 million through stock sales, boosting cash reserves to 3.2 billion while holding 843,000 Bitcoin unchanged. No Bitcoin buys this week signals discipline, not capitulation. Regulatory deadlines are tightening. The Genius Act hits its one-year anniversary with Tether facing a two-year compliance count Roughly 25% of Tether's reserves sit in non-compliant assets. Meanwhile, the Clarity Act faces a 40% passage probability due to ethics concerns around presidential crypto earnings. That wraps your market intel. Trade smart out there. For deeper insights and real-time analysis, visit capitalcopilot.io