Nation States: Trump’s Asia Trip and the Taiwan Test

Steve Yates (0:02)

Welcome in. Last Saturday afternoon, October 31st, 22 Chinese military aircraft flew out towards Taiwan, and 18 of them crossed the middle line in the Taiwan Strait. Fighter jets, an early warning plane, aerial refueling tankers and drones, all working with Chinese warships. Beijing called it a Joint Combat Readiness Patrol.

Before dawn that same day, a Chinese Coast Guard ship switched off its tracking signal, went dark and slipped into restricted waters off a small Taiwanese island called Pratas.

In less than two weeks, the president of the United States will be shaking hands with Xi Jinping in Shenzhen, China. Those two facts are connected. Today I'm going to show you how.

Welcome back to Nation States with Yates. I'm Steve Yates. Today's topic, President Trump runs the Asia gauntlet.

By the time you hear this, you'll know how the midterms turned out. We'll dig into what the new Congress means for foreign policy in an upcoming episode. Today, though, I want to look at a trip that happens no matter who controls Congress.

Whichever way the vote went, the world didn't stop and wait for us. And the biggest foreign trip on the president's calendar this fall is coming up fast. In mid-November, President Trump flies to Manila, in the Philippines, for the Summit of Southeast Asian Nations. Then he flies to Shenzhen, in southern China, for the big Asia-Pacific Economic Summit, known as APEC. Technically, it stands for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. But because that's kind of a weird name, we just say APEC.

There he'll sit down with Xi Jinping for the third time this year. At the same time, Beijing is squeezing Taiwan harder in the air, at sea and around the islands Taiwan controls off of China's coast. So here's what we'll do today.

First, the itinerary and why the order of the stops tells you something. Second, Xi Jinping as host and what Beijing wants out of this meeting. Third, the squeeze on Taiwan in detail. And finally, what a good trip would actually look like for you, Main Street America. If you're new here, welcome. This show is about Nation States and how they shape our lives. Explained in plain language by someone who spent years inside the room where the decisions get made. If that's useful to you, hit follow and subscribe right now. So Tuesdays and Thursdays episodes show up without you having to look for them. So let's get going. Stick with me through the brief break and we'll take our deep dive into President Trump runs the Asia gauntlet. Back in a few.

Welcome back to Nation States with Yates. The topic, President Trump runs the Asia gauntlet. We're going to look at the itinerary and why the order matters. And that starts with the map. The President's first stop is Manila for the 49th Summit of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. That's 11 countries from Indonesia and Vietnam to Singapore and the Philippines, with almost 700 million people between them.

The Philippines holds the rotating chair this year, so Manila is the host. The Summit runs November 16 through 18, and the Philippine government confirmed in mid-October that President Trump is coming.

This will be the first visit to the Philippines since 2017

That was also the last time Manila hosted the Summit. Some of you may remember that in 2017, he left that meeting part way to get back to Washington. People in the region remember that too. So simply showing up and staying for the work sends a message. According to regional reporting, the Summit dates were moved from November 11-13, so the schedules would fit together and the president could make it to both meetings. Make it to ASEAN, and also onward to APEC that we'll talk about. When the 11 Nation Summit changed its calendar to fit one leader's travel, that tells you how much the region wants America at the table.

Then he gets back on Air Force One for a flight about two and a half hours over the South China Sea to Shenzhen. China is hosting APEC this year at that location. And the leaders meeting is November 18 and 19

So why does the order matter? Because in diplomacy, sequence is a message. If you go to your treaty ally first, you walk into the room with your rival having just stood next to your friends. The Philippines is our oldest treaty ally in Asia. Our mutual defense treaty dates to 1951 Visiting Manila says, we know who our friends are, and we're coming to Shenzhen with them behind us, or more accurately, side by side, not in a rear view mirror.

The reverse order would have said something different. Go to Beijing's turf first, and whatever she says sets the tone. Then you're explaining yourself to your allies afterwards. That's the weaker position. The sequence on this trip is the right one. The question is whether the substance matches it. What is the substance in Manila? First, a likely one-on-one with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos. Their ambassador in Washington has said bilateral meeting is likely and that the topics could include the West Philippine Sea. That's the Philippines name for parts of the South China Sea inside its own waters, where Chinese Coast Guard and militia ships have been harassing Filipino sailors and fishermen for years. In July, the Chinese Coast Guard confronted Filipino troops at Second Thomas Shoal, and a Filipino soldier was wounded. After that, in a phone call, President Trump told Marcos he would take up the Philippines' concerns with Xi.