It's a Numbers Game: REPUBLICAN MELTDOWN! The Brutal Truth Behind Trump’s Midterm Disaster

Ryan Girdusky (0:00)

Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky. Thank you all for being here. First of all, I just want to say thank you to everyone who listens to Wednesday's show. It had crazy high listenership, a lot of positive feedback. If you really like this channel and you really want to see it grow, make sure you click a subscribe button, either on YouTube or Spotify or Apple or on the iHeartRadio app. Make sure you're listening to every episode. It really will help continue for me grow and give you guys the best data available. So I spend a lot of the day on Wednesday and Thursday, looking at postmortems about the election and what happened when went right, when we're wrong, especially from conservatives. I really wanted to hear from other conservatives after I got my opinion out to everybody. And it was a mixture of high profile people and really very smart, analytical people who do data about what happened. And I left that time feeling fairly disappointed because a lot of people use this blowout election on the part of Democrats to confirm their priors. Basically to say everything that I've always been saying is correct. Right. If you were into this election thinking the Iran war was great, you came out of it saying almost everybody, not everyone unanimously, but a lot of them came out saying, well, this is nothing to do with the war. This is all to do with tariffs. If you are a Trump shill, if you said that Donald Trump walked on water, you left this election saying this was really because the candidates for Senate House, this is nothing to do with Trump. That they were uninspiring, it wasn't the conditions that Trump left. So there was that happening a lot. There was that going on quite a bit. And I would really encourage Republicans and Conservatives to take a moment to challenge themselves, right? Challenge their priors, challenge what they go into the world with. Don't confirm them because it's comfortable. This is not the moment just to look for comfortable answers to an election blowout. This is the time to really look into yourself and say, all right, what is really going on? What's really going? What's really turning people off? Challenge yourself and hope to meet the moment because that will lead to a more, a better Republican Party, a conservative movement willing to address the issues of people.

And that's what I really wanted to do. Make sure I don't go to my defaults in this moment. I had an interview with a Vox reporter and it was very funny because they're liberal overall at Vox and not Fox, Vox, Vox will they be. And they said to me something to the effect of like, how do you know if your priors are wrong? How do you know you're actually doing this? And I said, listen, it's everyone does this. Everyone says they don't like to be challenged on their ideology. Look at the amendments over not allowing biological men in female spaces, in female sports, passed unanimously across the country in blue states like Colorado and Washington, pass overwhelmingly.

Could you find 100 members of this current Democratic Congress, 50% or 52% who would sign onto a bill saying that? Could you find 50 members to tell you that there are actually only two biological sexes? The answer is no.

The electoral class is almost always more extreme than the general public. And it's really important to remember. Like they are in fear of the political class and the judgment from the political class. They will ignore very obvious things that most Americans believe in. So the only way we're going to be able to do that, to challenge ourselves, to find more, to find better answers, is to examine the data. So let's go to it. First, the generic ballot looks like it's a D plus 13 electorate. That means that the Democrats won the overall popular vote in the House of Representatives by 13 point margin, which is near historic. It's Watergate levels, right? Very, very high. We don't know the exact number yet because, of course, California will be counting votes until the next election. They'll finally finalize the vote and we'll go to another election. But in 2024, the generic ballot was R plus two. So it's about a 15 point swing. Let's say just let's say 15 points overall. So the New York Times estimating and they were very right in their polling. So examining the polling, the two groups that swung the hardest against Republicans were young people who moved 33 points towards Democrats, followed by Latinos who moved 29 points towards Democrats. Now, those are mutually exclusive groups, right? There are a lot of young people who are Latino. So when one moved, the other one moves with it, right? Because it's, you know, it's, they're kind of the same group in a lot of cases. Two things about that, Latinos who are younger, swung more to the left than Latinos who are older. Likewise, Latinos who make $50,000 a year and less also swung further to the left than Latinos who made higher amounts of income, 100,000, 200,000, whatever. Let's unpack that for a second.