Israel pushes to restart strikes against Iran

Marc Filippino (0:02)

Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Wednesday, October 21st, and this is your FT News Briefing.

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin another cycle, and Israel made plans to strike Iran earlier this month. Plus investors are feeling calmer about guilts ahead of the UK budget. I'm Marc Filippino, and here's the news you need to start your day.

The US is trying to restart peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Yesterday, US Special Envoy Steve Whitkoff met with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in Oslo. It comes after weeks of tension between Washington and Kiev. The Trump administration has pushed Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, thus to try to lower diesel prices ahead of midterm elections next month. The FT's Amy McKinnon has been following the latest. Hi Amy.

Amy McKinnon (1:03)

Hi Marc.

Marc Filippino (1:04)

So, Amy, what did we see in Oslo yesterday?

Amy McKinnon (1:07)

So there was no immediate breakthrough from this meeting in Oslo yesterday, but what we did learn from a press conference after, from the leaders of Norway, Finland and Ukraine, is that they did describe the talks as constructive.

They said that they'd done some substantive work on some of the key sticking points in trying to end this war. They didn't really go into detail what they were. The Finnish president, Alexander Stub, said that they've touched upon economic issues, and issues of security for Ukraine, but they didn't really go into much further detail than that. But this comes after a tumultuous couple of weeks in the US relationship with Ukraine.

Marc Filippino (1:47)

Now, Amy, Witkoff heads to Russia today. What are we expecting there?

Amy McKinnon (1:51)

That's right. Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has really led the US talks on trying to end the war in Ukraine, is headed to meet with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg today.

And he's going to relay some of those proposals that were forged in Oslo yesterday, and will come back with a Russian response. The other thing that we're also expecting from Witkoff's visit is he is advocating for the release of an American who's been wrongfully detained in Russia since 2022 And that's another outcome that we're expecting from that.

Marc Filippino (2:24)

I'm not going to lie, it doesn't sound like a ton of progress is being made in actually ending the war.

Amy McKinnon (2:29)

The talks trying to end the war have taken on a very kind of cyclical nature.

So the way the cycle has generally gone during Trump's second term is there is some kind of a bust up, usually between Zelensky and Trump. The Europeans get exceptionally anxious and will oftentimes step in and try and smooth things over. And inevitably, there is effectively no movement at all from the Russians.

One consistent thread that you hear from the Europeans, from the Ukrainians is that really the movable object in these talks is Russia. The Ukrainians have shown a great deal of willingness to come to the table, to kind of change their goals, to engage in discussions. But there has been really no inkling that Vladimir Putin is in any way ready to give any ground on this war yet.

Marc Filippino (3:21)

I mean, given that we are in this cycle of lashing out and reconciliation, lashing out and reconciliation, what does that mean for the war going forward?

Amy McKinnon (3:31)

Well, this comes, this latest cycle comes as we are heading into winter, which is a really perilous time for Ukraine. Russia has just been bombarding Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Last winter, Ukraine experienced a series of rolling blackouts, some people even being left without heating. And of course, this is a country where it gets incredibly cold in the winter months.

And at a time also when global supplies of interceptors, these really important missiles which are used to shoot down the incoming Russian ballistic missiles, are in short supply because of the war on the Middle East, the war with Iran. And so Ukraine, like everybody else, is short. And that has meant that more Russian missiles have been able to get through. We've seen some catastrophic civilian casualties just in the past few weeks. So what it means in the short term is that this war is going to continue and more people are going to die. Ukraine is facing a particularly tough winter ahead unless something can be done to change Russia's calculus in this war.

Marc Filippino (4:35)

That's the FT's US. Europe Foreign Affairs correspondent, Amy McKinnon. Thanks so much, Amy.

Amy McKinnon (4:40)

Thank you, Marc.

Marc Filippino (4:47)

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