Israel Hopes to Trigger a Revolt in Iran

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Luke Vargas (0:29)

Israel attacks Iran's police state, hoping to kick off a popular revolt against the country's leaders. Plus a record drop for South Korean stocks, as conflict in the Middle East drags Asia's economies. And James Talarico wins Texas' Senate Democratic primary on a message of electability.

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Luke Vargas (1:01)

It's Wednesday, March 4th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. And here is the AM Edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Israel says it shot down an Iranian jet fighter over Tehran this morning in what it claims is the first ever air-to-air shoot down of a manned fighter by an F-35. The Journal's Margherita Stancati says that comes as Israel is also continuing attacks against Iran's police state, hoping that airstrikes can clear the way for a revolt against the country's rulers.

Margherita Stancati (1:36)

In the first few days of war, we have seen Israeli forces strike the headquarters, bases and local command centers belonging to special police units and the ideologically driven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as the Basij militia, which are the street level and forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. And collectively, this sends a message that Israeli forces want to degrade Iran's ability to suppress internal descent in the hopes that this could pave the way to another domestic uprising, another popular revolt that could ultimately lead to the toppling of the Islamic Republic.

Luke Vargas (2:15)

And Margherita has said that Israel's attacks aren't just centered on Tehran, but on Kurdish areas in Western Iran, a key part of its strategy.

Margherita Stancati (2:23)

Kurdish and other ethnic minorities represent a particular kind of threat to the regime. Kurds in particular have a strong sense of community. They are in border areas and they're often armed. And there are also Iranian Kurdish fighters on the other side of the border in Iraq, which could cross into Iran should border security weaken and should there be a push to have a ground war as well. We know that Trump has spoken to Kurdish leaders in the region. We're not sure what they said, but there is a clear acknowledgement also from the Iranian side that this could be problematic for them.

Iranian forces have struck Kurdish targets in Iraq, including Iranian Kurdish offices. So there's a sense that this could become a next big potential front line in the war.

Luke Vargas (3:12)

Well, another thing to watch is how long each combatant in the conflict can keep up the fight. While we're just five days into the conflict, we're already hearing questions about when Iran will exhaust its missiles, whether the Gulf States could run out of air defenses, and that despite mobilizing a formidable force in the Middle East, could American munitions stockpiles run thin if fighting continues for weeks? Journal Defense Industry reporter Alastair MacDonald has been looking into the military hardware that has shaped the conflict to date. Alastair, are things as dire as the above warnings might suggest?

Alastair MacDonald (3:46)

Yeah, I would say potentially things are potentially as dire as people say. Of course, it depends on how long the war goes on for. There's no way that either side can sustain a conflict based on just air munitions, missiles, drones, et cetera, for months and months. And it also depends on whether the US and Israel can destroy Iranian stockpiles and its ability to produce drones. Obviously, the ballistic missiles Iran has are the most deadly and harder to take down, but you can knock out a Shaheed in less than a month.

Luke Vargas (4:18)

A Shaheed, these are these Iranian drones they've been using to good effect.

Alastair MacDonald (4:21)

That's right, one-way attack drones that have proved spectacularly successful in both the Ukraine war and here. I mean, the Shaheed, as you can see, is causing chaos amongst the Gulf states and have also been responsible for US deaths already. So they are very deadly, but also cheap and relatively easy to make weapon.

Luke Vargas (4:40)

What about rearming? We've heard some of the Gulf states say, we're fine here. We can get more weapons, air defenses if we need to. Is that the case?