Is Bitcoin on the Verge of Its Biggest Bull Run? | Markets Outlook

Ran Neuner (0:00)

I think we're going into a very big bull market. I think it's going to be Crypto's biggest bull market ever.

Jennifer Sanasie (0:11)

Crypto markets move fast. You need research that keeps up. That's The Stack, Grayscale's blog with sharp analysis from the team that's tracked digital assets since 2013 Head to grayscale.com/thestack.

Introducing RealFi, a smarter stablecoin that's backed by real world assets. Join the Testnet now at realfi.co. Ran Neuner, welcome to Markets Outlook.

Ran Neuner (0:35)

It's so good to be here, Jen.

Jennifer Sanasie (0:37)

I know, and you just came here right from your show. So I'm going to start very broad. Talk to me about what you're watching this morning.

Ran Neuner (0:45)

I mean, I guess today we've got to watch the Slack pullback that's happening on Bitcoin. I'll actually, I'll bring it up for you guys on the screen. Just that, I mean, you mentioned that not many of your guests actually show screen, so we'll spice things up a little bit.

Jennifer Sanasie (0:55)

The first time, and I am here for it.

Ran Neuner (0:58)

Yeah. So, I mean, ultimately, we got to highs on Bitcoin of about 81, 82,000. We were hovering around 81, 82,000. We slightly pulled back. Now, there's probably, you could bring it down to technical and fundamental reasons, right? The technical reasons are actually pretty simple, right? There's a thing in technical analysis which is called the Golden Cross. Actually, believe it or not, the Golden Cross is a very bullish indicator. Generally, after a Golden Cross, we actually move pretty far up, right? So, if you look at previous bull markets, bear markets, what you realize is that every time that the yellow line crosses the white line, we actually do move up and you can see that that was the end of the previous last bull market, that was it over there.

From there, we basically went up and we continue to go up. However, if you zoom in, what you realize is that just after the Golden Cross, you normally have a pullback. Those pullbacks are pretty normal every time we have the Golden Cross. The average is about 12%.

Since in the last three years, Bitcoin has had nine Golden Crosses. Out of those, three haven't had a pullback and six have had a pullback. And the average pullback is about 12%. And if you look at what happened to Bitcoin yesterday, we had the Golden Cross. So there it is, that's the Golden Cross, the 200 MA crossed the 50 MA.

And so we're starting to move down slightly. That's the technical reason why the market's moving slightly down. The fundamental reasons are actually slightly different. So if you want to bring it back to fundamentals, a couple of things have happened, which I think are scaring the markets. The one thing is, I'd say a little bit crazy, but Scott Bessent came out and said that the Treasury is going to double their buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion. And the Bitcoin market took that as a very, very, very positive sign, because that means that the Treasury is going to put more money into circulation to buy back their own debt. I know it sounds crazy, but I mean, the Treasury can actually print debt and then buy it back themselves, which is weird. But that's how they get money into circulation now.

Scott Bessent came out and he said to the market, look, we need long term rates to go down, because the US has $40 trillion worth of debt. And currently, the financing costs are about 5% on that debt. And so the only way to bring long term rates down is effectively to create demand for long term debt. And if there is no demand, then governments just buy back their own debt and create the demand themselves. And that's what Scott Bessent indicated to the market. He said, hold on a second, we're going to increase our purchase from $2 billion to $4 billion. And then he went on to CNBC and he said, actually, it's going to be more than $4 billion. We're going to do whatever it takes to get the long part of the curve down. And so yesterday, instead of buying $2 billion or $4 billion, they bought $6 billion back. And the market was pretty disappointed about the $6 billion because the market said, well, we were kind of hoping you would do $10 billion.

So that's the one reason why the market is coming down. I guess the other reason why the market is coming down is this. And I'll share my screen again. If you look at the oil prices, they pretty much tell the story of what's going on in the war, right? So oil is shooting up. I think the last time that I looked at oil was $106 a barrel. I guess that's telling you that there's escalations in the war and that Trump is not really in control of the war. And two things have happened in the last 24 hours that kind of show that maybe Trump's not as in control of the war as we thought. The first thing is that he came out and he said that the war will end after the elections. And he kind of said, he said the Iranians will not end this war until after the elections, insinuating that the Democrats will win the House or the Senate or both the House and the Senate.