Iran Negotiations Drag, New Inflation Report, Sexual Abuse at Elite School

**Leila Fadel** (0:02)
Negotiations to end the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz are dragging on, and that may be Iran's strategy.

**A Martínez** (0:09)
Iranian media is tracking President Trump's falling popularity. How much are the midterm elections influencing Iran's negotiating tactics?

**Leila Fadel** (0:15)
I'm Leila Fadel, that's A Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.
New data about the cost of living in the US comes out this week. It is expected to be rising faster than wages. Can the Federal Reserve do about it?

**A Martínez** (0:31)
Plus, a new report reveals decades of sexual misconduct at an elite art school in Michigan.

**Ava Berger** (0:36)
Some 70 allegations of sexual abuse against students by nearly 50 adults from the 1950s to the 2010s.

**A Martínez** (0:44)
How did this happen at such a prestigious institution? Stay with us, we've got the news you need to start your day.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:55)
This message comes from Dell Technologies. Get long-lasting battery life on the Dell XPS Laptop powered by Series 3 Intel Core. Now from $699, with exclusive student pricing from $599.
Visit dell.com/deals.
This message comes from BetterHelp. One of the hardest parts about starting therapy? Not knowing what to expect. Instead of listening to an ad, hear from the people who've actually been there. Visit betterhelp.com/reviews to explore real client reviews that are updated every day. With an average live therapy session rating of 4.9 out of 5, based on more than 1.7 million client session reviews, the feedback speaks for itself. Visit betterhelp.com/reviews.

**SPEAKER_5** (1:41)
This message comes from Capital One with the Capital One Saver Card. Earn unlimited 3% cash back on dining and entertainment. Capital One. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Details at capitalone.com.

**Leila Fadel** (1:55)
Tehran has laid out tough conditions for the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which may mean the talks drag on much longer.

**A Martínez** (2:03)
Some experts say that could be a deliberate strategy to prolong negotiation so that President Trump goes into midterm elections even more unpopular than polls show he already is.

**Leila Fadel** (2:12)
To understand this thinking better, we're joined by NPR's Hadil El-Shalchi in Istanbul. Good morning.

**Hadil El-Shalchi** (2:18)
Good morning.

**Leila Fadel** (2:19)
What is Iran saying it wants in order to make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

**Hadil El-Shalchi** (2:24)
Yeah.
We know that the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement over the weekend saying that Iran would only open the Strait of Hormuz, that key global waterway, if the US lifted its naval blockade as well as sanctions. He said that the US military must withdraw from around Iran, pay it reparations for war damages, release frozen Iranian assets, and end its attacks. Now, in the deal itself, that Iran is currently negotiating with Oman, Iran has banned any US or Israeli ships from moving through the Strait, and says that Iran will charge a fee and impose fines of up to 20 percent of the cargo value if those conditions are broken. The White House has yet to comment on those Iranian demands.

**Leila Fadel** (3:07)
Now, these conditions, just several of them, sound like something the US just would never agree to. What's Iran's strategy here?

**Hadil El-Shalchi** (3:14)
Well, the conversation inside Iran is very much about President Trump's vulnerability ahead of the midterms. Iran is very aware of the US political discourse. Iranian media tracks Trump's polling rates, it discusses how the Democratic party's base is shifting. For example, a news agency closely tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard published an article entitled The Iran War and the Start of Trump's Political Decline, outlining Trump's drop in popularity and the dilemma he faces if he continues the war.
I spoke to Asla Aydin Tashbash, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who's been following the talks. She says that Iran wants to make clear to Trump that even if they can't defeat the US militarily, they have other ways.

**Asla Aydin Tashbash** (3:54)
They can drag this out, that they are resilient, and therefore they won't have a stronger hand than they normally would in Hormuz negotiations.

**Hadil El-Shalchi** (4:06)
And so like you said, Iran is keeping those demands as maximalist as possible and trying to push any nuclear talks further into the future. Iran has said maybe up to four months from now even. And that could force Trump to go into midterms with no Iranian deal, a weakened economy, and an angry base that disapproves of the war.

**Leila Fadel** (4:24)
Could this backfire though for Iran?

**Hadil El-Shalchi** (4:26)
Playing this long game doesn't come without risk. The US has dealt Iran major blows in infrastructure and military. And if Iran doesn't strike a deal with the US soon, it can risk even more internal unrest as the economy continues to fail in Iran. On Sunday, Trump said to Axios, We are low keying it and compared it all to a chess game. He said that the US was watching Iran's huge inflation.