If Trump follows through, it's 'checkmate' for Putin — he's finished | Sir Bill Browder

**Bill Browder** (0:00)
The majority of American people, including Republicans, would like to see US military aid for Ukraine. And so every day that he pursues a policy of pro-Putin, he thinks he can sort of, you know, whitewash whatever is going on behind the scenes, but it's not happening. I mean, people see it, people see it for what it is.

**Maddie Hale** (0:28)
Hello and welcome to The Trump Report. I'm Maddie Hale. We're going to be talking a lot about Iran today, a lot about Russia, Ukraine, and how these kind of conflicts are moving towards being kind of involved with one another. There's a lot to kind of get into there, and a lot of developments that have happened overnight as you would expect. Now, just a reminder, you can watch us every day Monday through Friday on The Trump Report YouTube page. You can stream us as a podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. You can watch clips of the show on Facebook, Instagram and TikTok and follow those pages if you want. And if you want to be a Trump Report member on YouTube, you do so. I think it's about $6 USD a month. You get the show ad free and you get early access. Now, my guest today is Sir Bill Browder. Introduction does not even need to be said. Bill, thank you so much for joining the show.

**Bill Browder** (1:10)
Great to be here.

**Maddie Hale** (1:11)
We'll start with Iran and kind of what's happened in the last 72 hours. It feels as though it has escalated. So on the Iran side, there's been around two significant retaliatory missile attacks, one on a US base in Jordan, followed by strikes affecting Jordan and Kuwait. These are very much targeting US military bases right now. The United States has launched two major waves of airstrikes with one hitting dozens of targets during this two hour operation and the second being a follow up the next day. Iran has warned the United States that it will pay the price after accusing the US of striking and killing civilians on Qesem Island. Tarahan says that any attack on Iranian territory or its people will be met with retaliation and has vowed to not back down despite this, continued US military action.
Are things about to get lost a lot worse, do you think?

**Bill Browder** (2:08)
Actually, I don't think so. I think that things are gonna be a lot the same going forward.
The problem that the US has right now is that, no matter how hard they strike Iran, Iran is not gonna change their position. And Iran is in a much stronger position than the United States for one simple reason. It's a dictatorship, public opinion doesn't matter. Whereas in America, it's a democracy and public opinion does matter. And so every day that the war goes on, every day that gas prices stay high, every day that the Pentagon asks for more money is something that causes problems for the Trump administration, causes problems for Republican candidates in the midterms. And the Iranians know that. And so the Iranians are playing for time. And so, you know, America can strike Qasem Island or anything else, and it's not gonna change the way that the Iranians negotiate. And of course, the Iranians are very conscious of this. And for them, you know, they can think in terms of years, whereas the Americans can only think in terms of days or weeks. And so, the war is gonna carry on as it's been carrying on.
Trump can't determine when it ends. The war will end at some point when the Iranians decide that it ends, because they're the ones who can experience the pain, whereas America, any tiny bit of pain leads to all sorts of political outcomes that most people in power don't want to have happen.

**Maddie Hale** (3:38)
Well, on that argument that Iran is playing for time, that Iran has cards to play, that the US really wants to wrap this up. So, Kassem Island, it does sit in the heart of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. By targeting it, do you think that the United States has increased the chances that Iran will double down on using the Strait as a bargaining chip rather than backing away?

**Bill Browder** (4:01)
Well, I think at this point, Iran has realized that it doesn't have a Navy, doesn't have an Air Force, doesn't have much of a military left, but they do have one thing, which is the ability to block oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And so that's it. I mean, that's their leverage. They're not going to give up on that leverage. And to the extent that they have extra leverage, they have their Houthi comrades who can disrupt oil in the Red Sea. And that's all they have. But it's an extremely powerful bit of leverage, and they're going to use it to the maximum possible advantage. Perhaps, the third leverage is just being able to lob drones on to allied countries in the region and cause economic damage.