How AI is Tearing Through The White-Collar Workforce

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Caitlin McCabe (0:18)

It's Fed Day, but a bit of an unusual one, as the government shutdown leaves officials without their typical data. Plus, why white-collar jobs in the US are vanishing. And America leads with the most billionaires worldwide, but no one is safe.

Inti Pacheco (0:36)

The thing is that if you have a billion or two billion, next year you might not have a billion at all.

Caitlin McCabe (0:43)

It's Wednesday, October 29th. I'm Caitlin McCabe for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM Edition of What's News. The top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve today, which will announce its latest policy decision at 2 p.m. Eastern. Investors widely expect the central bank to cut rates by a quarter percentage point, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. The Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timiraos, joins me now to discuss what we might expect from today's meeting. Nick, thanks for being here. We mentioned that a rate cut today seems widely expected. Can you walk us through what the Fed is weighing as it makes this decision today?

Nick Timiraos (1:32)

The big question really for this meeting is, where does it leave everybody on the rate setting committee in thinking about another interest rate cut in December? Because if we go back to their previous meeting in September, they released quarterly economic projections then, and you had a narrow majority of the 19 people who fill out these projections who thought they would cut rates three times before the end of the year, and there were only three meetings left back in September. So that would imply a cut this week and another cut in December. But you had a significant minority of officials who didn't think any more rate cuts were going to be needed. Now, normally, when there's this kind of a divide, the economic data come along, and they kind of reconcile the debate. They help the people who were not comfortable with cutting get more comfortable with a cut or vice versa. But Caitlin, because of the government shutdown, the Fed has been robbed really of the information that would help reconcile this debate. So that's why this is a weird situation where it's going to be harder for the Fed to have a view about what you're going to do in December, because you won't have had the data that sort of guide you towards wherever that consensus is forming.

Caitlin McCabe (2:53)

Yeah, Nick, you make a great point. Obviously, most notably, we haven't had the September jobs report, which the Fed usually pays close attention to. We did have an inflation reading last week via CPI. Is the Fed looking at these more informal indicators or estimates that have been released in the absence of official macroeconomic data due to the shutdown, or what are they studying as they make this decision?

Nick Timiraos (3:21)

The Fed has a view as to how the economy is performing. And you're using whatever data you have, whether it's the higher quality government data or sort of the second and third tier private statistics or just anecdote, you're using that to sort of gut check your hypothesis about what's happening in the economy.

Caitlin McCabe (3:42)

What signals might we get or can we expect about the December meeting and even next year?

Nick Timiraos (3:49)

The answer for December is really there's inertia built into these processes. So once the Fed starts cutting, they need to see a reason to not cut. And certainly the markets are expecting another rate cut in December. So if that's not how the Fed sees it, then Wednesday's press conference and the likely avalanche of Fed speak next week and after this meeting, that's where you would hear that the Fed just doesn't share the market's view right now about the need to keep cutting interest rates.

Caitlin McCabe (4:21)

That's Journal Chief Economics correspondent Nick Timiraos. Nick, thanks so much for joining us.

Nick Timiraos (4:26)

Thanks for having me.

Caitlin McCabe (4:30)

After weeks of speculation among some of his allies about whether he would seek a third term, President Trump acknowledged that the Constitution prohibits him from doing so. While en route to South Korea amid his swing through Asia, Trump told reporters that, quote, if you read it, it's pretty clear. I'm not allowed to run. Adding that, quote, it's too bad. Trump's comments follow moves by some of his supporters who have promoted the idea of him running in 2028 Former Trump White House chief strategist Steve Bannon has previously said there is a plan in place for Trump to secure a third term. And Andy Ogles, a Republican representative from Tennessee, has introduced a bill that seeks a constitutional amendment which would allow Trump to run again. Meanwhile, the White House has fired all members of the Commission of Fine Arts, an independent federal agency that would be tasked with reviewing some of President Trump's construction projects. A White House official said it is preparing to appoint a new slate of members that are quote, more aligned with Trump's America First policies. The board members who were fired yesterday were appointed by former President Joe Biden. The Commission, which was established by Congress, is charged with giving advice on matters of design that involve federal interests and help maintain the dignity of the nation's capital. Although changes to the White House would be exempt from review processes, Trump has plans for other construction projects as well.