Fed Holds Rates Steady and Ends the Powell Era Deeply Divided

Alex Ossola (0:00)

AI is changing the world.

James Romoser (0:02)

We're securing it.

Alex Ossola (0:03)

Crowd strike. We stop breaches. There's a deep divide at the Fed as the Jerome Powell era comes to a close, plus a Supreme Court decision that weakens the Voting Rights Act.

James Romoser (0:18)

Essentially, what they can do as a result of this ruling is eliminate districts that have a majority of black voters and then disperse those black voters into other districts that would be dominated by white voters.

Alex Ossola (0:34)

And the Pentagon gives its first precise number for the military cost of the Iran War so far, $25 billion.

It's Wednesday, April 29th. I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM Edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

Let's begin with the latest at the Federal Reserve. The Central Bank held interest rates steady today. That part was widely expected. But not everything in today's announcement was so predictable. Journal Economics reporter Matt Grossman is here now to discuss. Matt, let's start with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This was his last meeting as Fed Chair, likely to be succeeded by Trump's pick Kevin Warsh. Powell said he'll stick around as governor for a period that has yet to be decided. He said the Justice Department's investigation into him makes that necessary.

Jerome Powell (1:25)

I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality. And I stand by that.

Alex Ossola (1:32)

He said the independence of the Central Bank was at risk.

Jerome Powell (1:35)

My concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors.

Alex Ossola (1:44)

How typical is it for a former chair to stick around on the board like this? And what could that mean for the board dynamics?

Matt Grossman (1:51)

This is a really unusual move for Powell. It's more than 75 years since we've had a Fed chair who stayed around after his term as chair ends. It really speaks to the level of concern that Powell has about the Fed's independence. He did not want to leave while there was any hint of a legal threat given this Justice Department investigation that was hanging over him and the Fed over the past few months.

Alex Ossola (2:15)

What sense do we have about the relationship between Powell and Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh?

Matt Grossman (2:21)

Powell said in his press conference today that he expects a normal transition to Kevin Warsh. Kevin Warsh's nomination was advanced today by the Senate Banking Committee, so now he goes to a full vote in the Senate, and he's widely expected to be confirmed, which would likely make the next Fed meeting in mid-June his first on the job. Powell said that he's going to stay around, but keep a low profile.

He said that the Fed will be Kevin Warsh's to lead, and that it's important that the Fed only has one chair at any given time.

Alex Ossola (2:51)

Now, Matt, back to the meat and potatoes, the interest rates. Today's decision had descents from four out of 12 members, and that's the most out of policy meeting since 1992

Which way were they dissenting? Did the dissenters want a hike or a cut?

Matt Grossman (3:05)

So we had one descent in favor of a rate cut, and three descents against the Fed hinting that its next move would be a cut. In other words, officials who are generally more in favor of considering a possible hike in the future.

Alex Ossola (3:21)

So what kind of signal does that give us as to what the Fed's next move might be up or down?

Matt Grossman (3:26)

There's a strong signal today in those three descents that if Kevin Warsh comes in with a strong preference to cut rates, he might face considerable opposition from some of the officials who've been in place on the committee for quite a while. Not only did the committee not vote for a cut today, but there were those three descents from officials who didn't even want to talk about that possibility in the near future.

Alex Ossola (3:52)

That was our economic reporter, Matt Grossman. Thanks, Matt.

Matt Grossman (3:55)

Thank you.

Alex Ossola (3:56)

Traders are changing their interest rate bets after some hawkish signals from today's Fed meeting. Traders now see a rate hike as more likely than a rate cut for this year. The Dow slipped, bond yields rose, and energy prices touched wartime highs after Powell took the podium for the last time as Fed chair. He warned that inflation would likely rise in the months to come. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ and the S&P were a little changed today. Also making waves in markets today was hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who took his company Pershing Square and a stock picking fund public today. Shares in the fund closed down 18%.