Democrats Lead In Midterm Polls, Yemen War Front, Paramount-Warner Bros. Merger

Leila Fadel (0:00)

It's beautiful here.

Ayah Batraoui (0:01)

Is it really?

Leila Fadel (0:02)

We saw moose.

Jessica Gonzalez (0:03)

Oh really?

A Martínez (0:04)

Like, how close did you get?

Leila Fadel (0:06)

Really close by accident, because we were on these rural roads that had no reception, and then we were like, why are these guys in the middle of the street when there's no people here, and there was two moose?

A Martínez (0:15)

Not mooses? No.

Oh, that's what I put on the few strands of hair I have left, mooses.

Leila Fadel (0:23)

Polls suggest Democrats are ahead with just four weeks left before the midterm elections.

A Martínez (0:28)

Republicans are spending money on races. They did not expect to be competitive, so what's behind the Democratic momentum, and can they keep it?

Leila Fadel (0:35)

I'm Leila Fadel, that's A Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.

Houthis took over new areas of Yemen last month and consolidated control of an oil shipping route. Now Saudi Arabia is pushing back. Nearly 200,000 people have been displaced by weeks of fighting.

A Martínez (0:54)

And Paramount closes its mega merger with Warner Brothers this morning. It puts HBO, CNN, and CBS under one company called Skydance. What changes for viewers and workers? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

Leila Fadel (1:12)

Four weeks from today will be election day.

A Martínez (1:15)

And a series of new polls are showing Democrats with a decided advantage in the midterms. But how much stock should we put into them? And is there something else we should be paying attention to?

Leila Fadel (1:25)

To help with that, who better than NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro? Good morning, Domenico.

Domenico Montanaro (1:32)

Good morning, Leila.

Leila Fadel (1:33)

Okay, so lots of polls flying around, and all of them seem to show Democrats doing well with voters. Just how confident should Democrats be?

Domenico Montanaro (1:41)

Right, well, polls are only one factor in midterms. You have to consider history, the national environment, the political structure, money and polling. Sometimes they're all related, and most of those right now are favoring Democrats. Remember, though, polls aren't predictive. They tell us what's happening now or rather during the dates when they were conducted with that particular sample and that polling outfit's way of waiting. You know, people still have to vote. These aren't prediction markets, and the prediction markets are really just trying to read the polls, where the money's heading and what the news narratives are. But what is clear, though, is that the needle has moved in Democrats' direction over the last several months, especially in the Senate, and that's about all that really should be taken away right now, big picture.

Leila Fadel (2:21)

So you say the needle has moved in Democrats' direction. What does that mean for the campaign and what might happen?

Domenico Montanaro (2:28)

Yeah, I mean, no crystal ball here, but we can come up with some informed reasons for what might happen. First, we've seen the most movement in the Senate, with lots of races moving in Democrats' direction, and that's because of what look to be tight races in red states. So the Senate is within reach now for Democrats, which I can hardly believe I'm even saying that, because it was highly unlikely at the beginning of this cycle. But it's not so far afield to say that Democrats are the clear favorites to win the House.

Leila Fadel (2:54)

Okay, why is that?

Domenico Montanaro (2:56)

Well, I mean, you start with history and the national mood. In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president's party has lost house seats, on average about 26 seats. And it's even worse when the president is unpopular, as President Trump is now. I mean, just a 37% approval rating tied for the worst pre-midterm approval rating in the last half century with George W. Bush back in 2006 Back then, Democrats won the House and the Senate. Think about how people feel right now about the economy and the war in Iran.

Those are both intertwined, as we know. And then think about how narrow House Republicans' majority is. It's only a few seats in the House. Democrats only need things to tip slightly in their direction for them to win. And the national mood certainly stacked against President Trump and the Republican Party. So Democrats have a clear advantage in the House. But there are some question marks about really how big those gains could be.

Leila Fadel (3:47)

Why the question marks?

Domenico Montanaro (3:49)

Well, I mean, there are a few things. The Democratic Party is unpopular. Now, that might matter less in a midterm, given that those are low turnout affairs. Usually the most fired up are the ones who turn out to vote. And anger is a real motivator. The intensity of opposition against Trump is just super high right now. The percentage of people in our last NPR PBS News Marist poll who said they strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing is 53 percent. That's the highest it's ever been. But the unpopularity of the party could still dampen enthusiasm for some of those voters who should lean in Democrats' direction. More importantly, for why these gains might be limited is the structure. 25 of the 31 seats Democrats are targeting aren't places Trump won in 2024