Skip to content
Can Republicans Beat the Midterm Odds? Sen. Hagerty Weighs In artwork

Can Republicans Beat the Midterm Odds? Sen. Hagerty Weighs In

Morning Wire

October 4, 2026

Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty joins John Bickley and Georgia Howe to discuss the upcoming midterm elections, Republican efforts to hold the Senate, and the party’s strategy for overcoming the historical disadvantages facing the party in power.

Speakers Georgia Howe, John Bickley, Bill Hagerty

TopicsDaily NewsNews

Georgia Howe (0:00)

Okay, first, before we give you the facts of the day, Run, Hide, Fight, Infidels is streaming now only on Daily Wire. It's an ode to the great action movies of the 80s and 90s, there's even a love story which nobody expected. And you can support Daily Wire's mission to continue making movies that people actually want to watch. Go check it out.

SPEAKER_2 (0:17)

The midterms are not just one national race, they're dozens of individual contests, each reacting to its own headlines and developments. In Maine, Troy Jackson and Susan Collins are competing on of CalSHI's most actively traded Senate markets. Track the race live in CalSHI's midterms hub and trade the outcome you believe will happen. A correct contract is worth $1 at settlement. Don't just watch the race. Take your position on CalSHI. Use code DAILY, D-A-I-L-Y, to get up to $25 when you trade at $25.

It's CalSHI, K-A-L-S-H-I, CalSHI. Trade on anything. 18 plus only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CalSHI products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see calshi.com/regulatory.

Georgia Howe (1:09)

Are you noticing your car insurance rate creep up even without tickets or claims? You're not alone. That's why there's Jerry, your proactive insurance assistant. Jerry handles the legwork by comparing quotes side by side from over 50 top insurers, so you can confidently hit buy. No spam calls, no hidden fees.

Jerry even tracks rates and alerts you when it's best to shop. Drivers who save with Jerry could save over $1,300 a year. Don't settle for higher rates. Download the Jerry app or visit jerry.ai/wiretoday.

Georgia Howe (1:42)

Midterms are quickly approaching and Republicans are hoping to buck historical trends to hold the Senate. Both parties are scrambling to respond to voters growing concerns about affordability.

John Bickley (1:52)

Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty joins us in studio to discuss the upcoming midterms and why he thinks the old wisdom about the party in power losing seats no longer applies. I'm Daily Wire, executive editor John Bickley with Georgia Howe. This is a weekend edition of Morning Wire.

Georgia Howe (2:11)

You know those pieces in your closet that you find yourself reaching for over and over again? The sweater that somehow works with everything, the jeans that you know always fit, or the bag that you carry everywhere. These are the pieces that are in a permanent place in your wardrobe, and that's exactly what Quince does so well. Quince makes elevated everyday essentials using premium materials like Mongolian cashmere, organic cotton, and premium stretch denim. The designs are timeless, thoughtfully crafted, and made to be worn again and again. As the weather gets colder, Quince has everything that you need to round out your wardrobe. From warm, responsibly sourced down jackets and cozy cashmere scarves and gloves, to beautiful 14-karat gold jewelry that adds that perfect finishing touch.

One of my friends recently had a baby and I found the perfect gift on quince.com. It was a Mongolian cashmere baby blanket and the softest shade of ivory. Find the fall pieces you'll reach for most at Quince. Download the Quince app for app-exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada and the UK too. When Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know it was Morning Wire. It's the best way to support the show.

John Bickley (3:20)

Joining us now in studio is Republican Senator Bill Hagerty of our home state, Tennessee. Senator, great to have you in the studio.

Bill Hagerty (3:26)

It's good to be back. It's good to be back.

John Bickley (3:27)

So look, any party in power faces an uphill battle in these midterm elections. We also have fuel costs much higher than anybody wants them to be. Hormuz Strait is still more closed than we want it to be.

What reason do you have to believe that the Republicans can keep the Senate?

Bill Hagerty (3:46)

Well, people always cite history and say, this is typically the case, and you're right. But you don't have to go too far back, basically, to 2022 when Joe Biden was in office. The United States Senate was at 50-50 at that point in time. Joe Biden had driven inflation through the roof. Oil was much higher than it is now, $130 a barrel. Inflation running amok. The failure in Afghanistan, perhaps the worst national security failure, the worst foreign policy failure we've seen, and certainly in my lifetime. I would have certainly thought we would have seen a major shift at that point in time. In fact, I believe that. I thought we would probably be at 53, 54 seats in the United States Senate for Republicans. I thought we'd pick up three or four seats. We wound up losing a seat. So I think conventional wisdom has changed. It really gets down to resources, and it gets down to having a pragmatic ground game in place and really fighting to win. When we went back and analyzed what happened in 2022, it turned out that the Democrats had changed a lot of the rules.

12 more minutes of transcript below

Thousands of transcripts fetched by people building searchable podcast archives

Fetch the whole transcript

The demo key returns a sample episode in full, no card needed:

request
curl -H "x-api-key: pt_demo" \
  https://spoken.md/transcripts/1000651996090

Markdown with the speakers named, for your notes, your knowledge base, or anything that makes HTTP calls.

From $0.10 per transcript. No subscription. Credits never expire. Prices exclude VAT, added at checkout for EU customers. Not what you expected? Email us within 14 days with 20 or fewer credits used and we refund the pack in full.

Using your own key:

request
curl -H "x-api-key: YOUR_KEY" \
  https://spoken.md/transcripts/1000793066705