Buck Brief - Trump’s Next Supreme Court Pick Could Hinge on This Election

Buck Sexton (0:01)

Why is Senate control so important? Let's go over this little bit, because we're just days away from a massive midterm election that could have ramifications not just for the rest of the Trump administration, but for decades perhaps to come, decades to come. So let's get into some of this here. Senate control is critical. The Senate majority means the power to confirm or block judges, as you know, and justices for the next two years of Trump's term, which is the whole ball game for the courts. Okay, absolutely critical. You know, Trump actually just finished floating Ted Cruz for a future SCOTUS vacancy. He was at this was at a Lubbock rally on October 27th. He said, I would pick Ted Cruz to be the next Supreme Court justice, and I wouldn't have to worry about it. I wouldn't even have to make a phone call. The Democrats will 100% vote for it because they hate the guy and they want to get rid of him. And the Republicans would 100% vote for it because they can't stand him. So I'd get 100% of the vote. Now, I think that's a little harsh about Ted. Ted can be quite charming when he wants to be. He can also be a little prickly if he doesn't like you. That is for sure. But he can be quite charming and actually much funnier than a lot of people realize. I've spent a fair amount of time around the senator. That all said, he would be a phenomenal Supreme Court justice. Now, Cruz previously has said no, apparently. He told Trump in the first term, I don't want to be a judge. But the joke still ended. Of course, everybody knows that confirmation fight around this would be would be amazing. Amazing television.

I'm not sure that if Trump was, if Trump really asked him at this point, he could say no to being a Supreme Court justice. Ted Cruz's wife works at Goldman Sachs. He does very well. You know, he's got a big podcast. He does very well. You know, they when your country needs you in that kind of a role, you're really going to say no. I don't know. I understand Ted may have aspirations. Some of you are probably already saying this out loud. He wants the big job. He wants to be president himself.

Okay, he tried once. Now, plenty of people try multiple times, and sometimes they get it on the second or third try. Just look at Biden. That's not a good precedent, but look at Biden. That all said, I think that there's plenty of reason to believe that Ted Cruz this time around, if he were asked, it could be explained to him and he would understand that we need him in this role. We've got a few of our justices are old, really old. And I mean the good ones. I don't mean the libs, the crazy activists in judges robes whom we can't get out of there fast enough. I mean, Alito, Thomas. I'm talking about some of the biggest, best name, really the best of the justices right now. They're old. And that's what happens, of course, the circle of life, nature, all that stuff. But we need really good conservative, constitutionalist justices. That is for sure. And Alito is 76

He says he's going to stay through this term, which ends in summer of 2027 Thomas is 78

Neither has announced retirement, but the math is obvious. Any vacancy in the next two years is a generational appointment. So as we're heading into a Senate battle here, where you could very well see a 51-49 or a 50-50 Senate when all is said and done, we've got to at least get there to 50-50 with JD Vance as the tiebreak. We have to get there. If Democrats were to be able to pull off the upset here and get to 51-49, they will make a mess of things. If the GOP holds, they can, of course, confirm any Supreme Court justice they want to quickly. And Thune, the Senate Majority Leader, has said he would move fast on a vacancy even in a lame duck if that were needed. But how has it been working with the confirmation stats and everything else we've seen so far the last two years? Trump has confirmed 55 Article 3 judges in his second term.

Ten appeals courts, 45 district courts, zero SCOTUS. So 55 Article 3 judges.

Trump term one, 83 Biden term one, 81 Obama term two, 105

So they have absolutely slow rolled the Trump administration being able to to do this.

Now there I understand we have a majority, but there are all kinds of ways that they just try to chip away at the time. There's all kinds of ways that they try to play games and slow things down. But the bigger issue is actually that there are far fewer vacancies. So we have fewer and fewer slots to fill compared to the last time around.