Breaking Points: Robert Pape on America’s ‘Escalation Trap’ Election Crisis

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We need to talk about a truly alarming conversation from Breaking Points. Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti sat down with University of Chicago professor Robert Pape, who just released a book called Our Own Worst Enemies. And his central argument? America is heading toward a genuinely dangerous political moment. Pape isn't pulling punches here. He says his book isn't just timely—it's urgent. He's warning that November could bring a crisis unlike anything in modern memory. But here's the twist: the real threat isn't the election itself. It's what happens after the votes are cast and counted. That's where things get really concerning. The discussion quickly turned to reports that Donald Trump may consider deploying the National Guard around the election. But Pape says the key issue isn't simple intimidation at polling places.

Instead, he warns, "We are heading into a domestic escalation trap." Right, and the danger actually grows after voting ends. Pape puts it this way: "The real danger zone begins after the voting stops on November 3rd, when the counting starts." He says the struggle could extend through certification and into the seating of the new Congress in January. What's striking is his argument that we've been normalizing political violence for years—through assassination attempts, violent protests, and state actions that blur the line between security and coercion.

He suggests Trump has already used the tools of office to avoid being the loser, and that dynamic could intensify now.

And it gets worse. Pape says the war in Iran makes everything worse. Rather than existing in a separate lane, he suggests it could pour fuel on domestic conflict and even create a diversionary war scenario if Trump escalates abroad while facing trouble at home.

The conversation also touched on ICE, the FBI, and allegations of government involvement in political violence. Pape stressed the importance of evidence and court review, noting that some accusations remain unproven. He pointed out that the Trump Justice Department hasn't produced evidence of FBI complicity in January 6th. Still, he says the larger structure is more dangerous than before—pointing to the Supreme Court, executive power, and the use of federal force as examples of how state authority can fracture American identity when legitimacy is weak or contested.

Here's something interesting: when asked whether Trump would care if Republicans broke with him, Pape says legacy matters most. "Donald Trump is facing the irreparable destruction of his presidency." Presidents lose more than power when they lose Washington. And his final warning is stark. In 2020, Trump still had guardrails. Now those restraints are gone. "That is the escalation trap," Pape says. The book is his case for taking that danger seriously before the crisis fully arrives.