Anti-Trump Sentiment vs. Policy: The Battle for the Midterms

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Luke Vargas (0:21)

Hey, What's News listeners, it's Sunday, April 19th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and this is What's News Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest stories in the news.

Less than 200 days out from the midterms, possible fractures are emerging within both major parties. As President Trump's criticisms of the Pope this week risk alienating Catholic voters, and Representative Eric Swalwell's fall from grace forces a reckoning among the high-profile Democrats who endorsed his run for California governor. With voters in some key states now just weeks away from selecting who will represent them in November, we'll look at how Democrats and Republicans are positioning themselves to emerge victorious in a wide-open battle for control of Congress. Let's get right to it.

Without further ado, I'd like to bring a pair of Journal politics reporters into the mix today. Eliza Collins is with us from Arizona, and on the line from the Chicago area is John McCormick. John, let me start with you. Before we talk about specific party strategy or any specific names, you've covered every big US election going back to 2000 Midterms, as most people know, don't generally favor the party that's in the White House. Is that likely to be the case again here this year? What's the overall narrative of this election 200 days out or so?

John McCormick (1:45)

Well, first, a couple of stipulations. It's going to sound like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, and I am. First, it's still about six and a half months until the general election, and that's a long time in American politics. At the same time, it's only about five months until early voting starts in some states. Here's a good statistic to drop at your next cocktail party when the midterms come up.

Since World War II, the party holding the White House has gained US House seats in just two elections, 1998 and 2002

So just the historical environment is challenging for Republicans. Add in a war, rising gas prices, a president prone to controversy, Democrats showing enthusiasm for voting and strengthen some local and state contests that have already been held this year. The general consensus among nonpartisan forecasters is that Democrats are likely to win the House and control of the Senate, which looked very unlikely a year ago, is increasingly considered to be in play.

Luke Vargas (2:43)

All right, so the Democrats making some inroads there. Eliza, you have just published a story looking at Bernie Sanders. He's not expected to run for president in 2028, but he is still very actively steering the direction of the Democratic Party, it seems.

Eliza Collins (2:58)

About as active as he's ever been and more popular, really. The party has moved to the left in many ways, including the establishment, sort of elite Democrats. But where Sanders has had a lot of success is in supporting these progressive primary candidates who will win their party primaries and then go on to general elections that are considered not very competitive and win those seats. Sanders is now testing that in some of these key races, especially races like John was saying, that could decide control of the Senate. So we're seeing a clash between the Sanders progressive wing of the party and really the establishment, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who have picked out more moderate candidates that they feel like can win, people who have won competitive races before, for example, in Maine. Governor Janet Mills has won the state previously.

Democrats are trying to take out Senator Susan Collins, who they've tried and failed before, but they feel like this year they have a chance. Meanwhile, Sanders and other progressives are backing someone named Graham Plattner. He's an oyster farmer, a political novice, and he really looks right now like he might win this primary. And so this is a really good example of the tension between the establishment and progressives, but in a race that has huge consequences. It's a majority maker for Democrats and really a must win if they're going to have a chance at taking back the Senate.

Luke Vargas (4:28)

John, Eliza mentioned that race in Maine, and granted, as you've mentioned, still early days, but you have seen some results already from this gamble on whether the Democrats should take a progressive turn here already.

John McCormick (4:41)

Yeah, we have. One that I'm gonna mention is really gonna give us a good sense for sort of the mindset of Democratic voters. This Michigan race, the primary is not until August 4th, so it's gonna play out all summer, and it features three major candidates competing to get the nod to fill a seat that's being vacated by Democratic Gary Peters' retirement. So that race features Representative Hailey Stevens. She's sort of the establishment moderate candidate. She flipped a GOP House seat in 2018