10 Years Post-Brexit

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**Brian Lehrer** (0:40)
Brian Lehrer on WNYC.
So 10 years ago, this week, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Since that vote, Britain has gone through six prime ministers, and as of Monday, it's on track for a seventh. You probably heard Keir Starmer announce his resignation. One decade in, British GDP per person is somewhere between 2.5% and 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit, depending on which economist you ask. Britain's share of global goods exports has dropped by 17%, and a YouGov poll out this month finds 57% of Britons now think leaving the EU was the wrong call against just 30% who say it was right. With us to explain the current economic picture in the UK, along with some of you, we're gonna invite your calls if you're UK-tied in just a minute, and take stock of where Britain stands politically 10 years on and answer, could this be reversed? Is Tom Carter, Britain economics correspondent at The Economist. Tom, thanks so much for some time today. Welcome to WNYC.

**Tom Carter** (1:50)
Hello, very nice to be here.

**Brian Lehrer** (1:52)
And listeners with UK roots or UK ties or in the UK right now, how's Brexit working out according to you? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692.
Anything good? How much bad? Are you mixed? If you yourself voted to remain in the EU or voted to leave, how much do you regret your vote or not today? Call or text 212-433-WNYC. We'd love to hear some of your voices on the phone. I know we have some listeners in the UK on any given day. Feel free to chime in or anyone with UK roots or UK ties who has a take on this or a question for Tom Carter from The Economist, 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692.
Tom, does the Brexit anniversary fit into the resignation announcement by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, or is that just a coincidence?

**Tom Carter** (2:53)
I think that is just a coincidence, but Brexit certainly hasn't made governing Britain any easier over the last 10 years. We've lost, this is the sixth Prime Minister we've lost. Many of the Prime Ministers we lost were as a result of Brexit like Theresa May in 2019
Yes, it is a coincidence, but it also paints a bit of a picture of an ungovernable country that there's not, yeah.

**Brian Lehrer** (3:21)
So on your beat as economics correspondent, Britain economics correspondent at The Economist, the most cited number in your piece is that British GDP per person may be 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit, though you note some economists put it as not that bad, closer to 2.5% worse.
It's in the wrong direction in any case. What did any of that mean for the day-to-day lives of Britons?

**Tom Carter** (3:51)
Yeah. So I mean, the thing about Brexit is it shows up in lots of ways. I mean, for most British people, the most obvious thing is when you go abroad and you're going on a holiday and suddenly you're queuing up to go through security and get your passport stamped and those lines are much longer than they used to be. Or if you wanted to bring your dog with you, it suddenly has become a lot harder. But then when it comes to business and if you're a small business person before Brexit and even now, you'd probably be importing parts from the EU and using that to make the products you make.
That has become harder. So the harm from Brexit hasn't just come through one thing, it's come through hundreds of different things that have made life harder.

**Brian Lehrer** (4:32)
And you're right that Britain's share of global goods exports has fallen 17% in these 10 years while services exports are up 47% in real terms. So what do those numbers taken together mean?
Has Brexit simply accelerated Britain's transition into a services economy? Could it be a net plus on balance? You have a big up number and a big down number there. Translate into regular English.

**Tom Carter** (5:04)
Yeah, I think the main thing I would say is that this was a transition that was going on well before Brexit and, you know, it's a result of the fact that Britain hasn't been very good at manufacturing for a long time. We have incredibly high energy costs. Countries like China can do it much quicker, much cheaper than we can. So I wouldn't blame Brexit for the fact that all our goods trades have reduced over the long term, but it has certainly made things worse because the main area that we exported to in 2016, when we left, was the European Union. And now, even though we don't pay tariffs on our trade to the European Union, what we do do is a lot of paperwork and a lot of very complicated rules about what is tariff-free and what's not tariff-free. And that has meant that a lot of exporters have just given up altogether. So it has definitely accelerated that range. When it comes to services, I think Britain has always done really well in services. We have butlers to the world.