$1.3 Million Bitcoin Will Be “Relatively Easy,” Says Bitwise’s Matt Hougan | Markets Outlook

**Matt Hougan** (0:00)
Our long-term prediction is we get to 1.3 million by 2035
I think we have a good chance to get back up to 100K this year. I think the conditions are extremely bullish.

**Jennifer Sanasie** (0:16)
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Introducing RealFi, a smarter stable coin that's backed by real world assets. Launching August 2026 Join the Testnet now at realfi.co. Matt Hougan, welcome to this special edition Markets Outlook from the New York Stock Exchange.

**Matt Hougan** (0:43)
Thanks for having me. It's great to be here.

**Jennifer Sanasie** (0:44)
Thanks for being here. Now, this is my first Markets Outlook since being on vacation. And you and I were just talking about the flip of the market. You said folks were in despair and we hit euphoria overnight.
Talk to me a little bit. I mean, I was on vacation. I'm sure some of our audience hasn't been following as closely as you and I, but what triggered that flip?

**Matt Hougan** (1:07)
It was really amazing. I mean, we went from zero to 100 miles an hour overnight. The answer, specific answer to your question was what Besant did in the treasury market. More than anything else, him stepping in to say he would buy back the long end of the treasury curve really sparked the rally. But that's sort of a fake answer. I think what was really going on was crypto investors had been waiting for weeks, maybe for months for an excuse to buy. There's been all this good news. There's been the growth of tokenized stocks. There's been interest in real world assets. There's been hyperliquid. There's what's happening on Robinhood. People were waiting for an excuse to come into the market. Once Besant gave them their excuse, they jumped in with two feet. I think that explains the sort of despair to exuberance switch that we saw so quickly.

**Jennifer Sanasie** (1:51)
All right. We're in September now. Some might call it Rectember. Historically, not a very good month for Bitcoin. We did have that flip of the market that we just spoke about. Talk to me about how you expect Bitcoin to perform this month and throughout the rest of the year.

**Matt Hougan** (2:03)
Yeah, look, I think we're going to have a little bit of digestion of the big mark up. You don't go up 30 percent and then not sort of pace yourself a little bit. But there is a lot going on on the macro side. Just today, we're seeing huge ramps in yields around the world. We're seeing a lot of chatter out of the G20. I think there's a possibility that another macro catalyst will give us another leg up. So while I would expect some short term consolidation over the next few weeks, maybe next week, I think the market is going to start to look ahead to October to contrast direct timber.
And we may start to see that come a little bit early.

**Jennifer Sanasie** (2:37)
Let's talk about some of those macro catalysts. What should we be looking out for?

**Matt Hougan** (2:41)
Yeah, I think anything that suggests there will be further intervention into the markets to control the upward trajectory of long term interest rates globally will be welcomed by crypto investors. That could be Besant intervening. That could be more activity from the Bank of Japan. It could be more global activity on the yen. It could be concern over in Europe. There are lots of things. I think we're at the point in the market where any small piece of news will be blown into a very big story. So it doesn't have to be a big intervention. We're now at the point of the cycle where we reward any little hint of good news. I think a little piece of positive macro news would go a long way towards reigniting a second phase of the rally.

**Jennifer Sanasie** (3:20)
Well, that brings me to a post you shared on X recently. If Besten is right and we grow our way out, you want to be long AI stocks if Besten is wrong, and we inflate our way out, you want to be long Bitcoin if you want to win in either scenario, own both. Talk to me a little bit about that and how you might be allocating a portfolio under the current conditions.

**Matt Hougan** (3:39)
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you look the big whale of a story is the $40 trillion of debt going to $50 trillion, going to $100 trillion.
As an investor, you need to take that into account. The traditional portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds is 100% fiat currency. You're completely exposed to that. What Besson has said is he'll grow his way out of this thanks to the AI boom. He may be right. We may get that one in a million chance that it plays out exactly perfectly. So own AI stocks. If he's right, you get that. If he's wrong, the other way governments get out of this is by inflating away the debt. In that case, Bitcoin is the fastest horse, so you want to own that. That's what I was driving at. In terms of what I see investors doing from their portfolio, look, I see them maintaining total allocation to equities. I actually don't think that's going anywhere. People are excited about AI. The changes I'm seeing are on the bond side of the portfolio. People wanting to take less risk there. That means shortening duration instead of owning 10-year treasuries, maybe you own three-month treasuries, and then adding back risk with the crypto allocation to get the return you need. So maybe it's 60-35-5, maybe it's 60-30-10, but I think I have 0% in Bitcoin at this point is a misallocation and puts you at risk in the future.