Win Streak Ends and Fed Watch Begins, Palantir Tumbles, CEOs' Macro Message at Milken 5/6/25

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David Faber (0:47)

Market insight and analysis. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

Carl Quintanilla (0:53)

Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Mike Santoli at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber is at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills. Cramer has the morning off. Futures are a bit soft as more companies cut or suspend their guidance today. It's either Ford or Mattel, Marriott and Clorox. Tenure yield hits about a 10-day high this morning. Our roadmap begins with the Dow and the S&P snapping that nine-day wind streak as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting later today.

David Faber (1:21)

Plus, Palantir is the best-performing S&P name so far this year. It was out with this quarterly results after the bell, and that has sent shares a bit lower in the pre-market. And we are live day two for us for the Milken Global Conference. Coming up, we've got the CEO of Alternative Asset Manager Aries. We have Morgan Stanley's co-president, and we'll also get a read on the Fed and the markets ahead of tomorrow's rate decision with Rockefeller Capital's Greg Fleming.

Carl Quintanilla (1:48)

Let's begin with the markets and the Fed after the end of that nine-day win streak for stocks. Mike, something put almost together, almost 11% in a very short period of time.

Mike Santoli (1:56)

I was going to say, there have been nine-day win streaks actually almost a year ago, but this is a particularly strong one. So you get a little bit of the extreme snapback effect because the decline into that low on April 7th was also very steep and sudden. Now it's a matter of what's next because the positioning has at least become less negative. People have probably become a little more comfortable. Volatility is down, but it's not really drained away considering how far we've come off the low 17% at a logical place to wait and see here. I think we're back to the April 2nd levels. We got to contend with those a little bit. And despite the nine-day win streak, as I say, even though credit spreads came in, the anticipated volatility, all these little signs of anxiety of a dollar down and yields are kind of flattish, but you had some of that dollar down, treasury yields up action before Asian currencies moving fast. So I think we're back in the mode of saying, is macro moving around too quickly? And wait to see what the Fed might have to say. I think that the market has kind of drained away any hope that some imminent move is coming from the Fed. But I think the body language and the leaning of Powell tomorrow could maybe fill in some of the blanks.

Carl Quintanilla (3:08)

David, it'll be interesting to get the view from your world out there this morning, especially given, for example, this Goldman Report where Jan Hotzius keeps his recession odds around 45, says it makes sense that hard data, especially after an event-driven outcome, often lags some of the survey work that we've seen lately.

David Faber (3:29)

Yeah, I mean, that is kind of the key question to a certain extent, the lags. The conversation here, and I think we got a lot of it yesterday in a sampling, and we'll give people a sampling of the guests that we heard from yesterday as well, as similar as you take a look at Hatsias' note there in terms of soft data and where we are in an event-driven recession, is that we're getting closer here to a key point, I think it's fair to say. It's funny, Mike, coming into earnings season, I think I had the expectation given a lot of the things I was hearing from leaders of organizations that there would be suspension of guidance across the board. It didn't happen quite as much, certainly not in many of the companies that reported that we followed closely. But it does seem to be building steam to some extent. I don't know how much or to what extent that's giving investors any pause. But in some ways, you could have been more positive based on some of the earlier conference calls where, frankly, I thought we would get a lot more uncertainty than we did.