Why Trump's $5,000 Check Is the Most Bullish Bitcoin News of 2026! | Truth Block

Scott Bessent (0:00)

I am the house now. You can bet against me if you want.

Donald Trump (0:02)

I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.

Hurley (0:11)

The Treasury Secretary of the United States just called himself the house and dared anybody who doesn't like it to bet against him. 24 hours later, the president promised every adult in America a $5,000 check if his party wins in November. That's $1.2 trillion on top of a deficit that the same Treasury Secretary had just finished saying he was going to cut. Then the bond market answered. The 30-year Treasury hit its highest level since 2007 So what happens now that traders called Bessent's bluff and bet against him? If the guy running the money is the house, what does that make you? And why is Trump's $5,000 promise the most bullish news Bitcoin has had all year? This is Truth Block. I'm Hurley. Let's mine truth.

Wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected this morning. Oil crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since May, and as a result, Bitcoin slipped under $77k. But the move that matters happened in bonds. The 10-year is at $4.92, and the 30-year hit $5.35, the highest since June of 2007 Odds of a Fed interest rate hike next Wednesday are now around 70%.

Gold sold off on the same news, so both hard assets had a slow day, while the systems they're a hedge against had a genuinely bad week. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sat down for a fireside chat at SMU's Cox School of Business with Ray Washburn, and he explains why he keeps intervening in currency markets when the press says he's taking a risk with public money.

Scott Bessent (1:36)

Whenever people say, Treasury secretary is taking a risk, it's my dream. I have asymmetric information. I am the house now.

So, when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do, and you can bet against me if you want.

Hurley (2:11)

He picked that metaphor himself, so let's take it seriously. The house in a casino isn't the best gambler in the room, and it doesn't need to be. It writes the odds. It sees every hand at the table, and it plays with money it can always replace.

Over a long enough night, the house wins by design. That's what Bessent is telling these students he is. He knows what the Bank of Japan is going to do before you do, because he talks to them.

He can move the Exchange Stabilization Fund into another country's currency during that country's election, which he did in Argentina last year. He can walk into the bond market with billions on any morning he chooses, and then he says, bet against me if you want. And it looks like people did. The dollar yen is back at 154, which means the yen is weaker right now than it was before Washington and Tokyo spent the money defending it. The intervention Bessent dared traders to fight has been completely reversed. And Bloomberg reported over the weekend that Japan probably sold US Treasuries to pay for it. Tokyo defended its currency by selling the same bonds Washington is buying back to hold yields down. If you want to stop the yen falling apart and you don't want Japan selling more Treasuries to do it, eventually the Fed prints dollars to buy yen, sacrifice the dollar to protect the bond market. That has always been the trade. So that's the House. Now here's the bill.

Donald Trump (3:23)

Because we've done so well and because our country is making so much money that only I can make this promise to you.

And here is my promise. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic, tremendous economic success, like in history, we've never had anything like what's happening. But because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.

Hurley (4:28)

Let's hang on Trump's shareholder line, because that's what gives it away. A company pays a distribution to its shareholders out of profit, and shareholders own the company. The US government has no profit. It runs a deficit, borrows the difference, and the people getting the check are the same people on the hook for the borrowing. About 245 million adult citizens at $5,000 each is roughly $1.2 trillion, the biggest stimulus payment since the pandemic. And the president can't write it.