Why This Bitcoin Dip Is Actually Bullish | Mike Alfred

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
How do you want to split it? Actually, dinner's on me.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:02)
Okay, big money.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:03)
Well, I got a Venmo balance that I can spend with my Venmo Debit MasterCard, so.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:08)
Well, I Venmo'd you three times last week, so it's kinda on me, actually.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:12)
Yeah, you send it, I spend it.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:13)
Did my money get like reincarnated?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:15)
Yeah, it's chicken shawarma. You want it back?

**SPEAKER_2** (0:18)
I can't believe you like ate my Venmo.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:21)
Spend your balance instantly with the Venmo Debit Card. No monthly fee or minimum balance. Venmo balance account required to get a card and use a balance. Venmo MasterCard is issued by the Bancorp Bank, NA.

**Scott Melker** (0:31)
Bitcoin made it almost $82,000 last week, but now it is down around $76,500. But I'm going to tell you why this Bitcoin dip is actually bullish. And more specifically, I'm going to leave that job to my amazing guest today, Mike Alfred, because I have a feeling he also believes that this is a dip worth buying. We're going to dive into that and everything else happening in the news right now. Let's go.
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the show. It is day 793 of me drinking La Croix publicly until they sponsor me. Somebody call them, please. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Mike right now. Good morning, sir.

**Mike Alfred** (1:27)
Good morning. How are you? Good morning.

**Scott Melker** (1:28)
How are you? Do you drink La Croix ever?

**Mike Alfred** (1:30)
No.

**Scott Melker** (1:31)
Yeah, you shouldn't. You're an Aquapana guy. You don't do flavors. I know this already. I mean, you literally memed Aquapana into success. If they're not sponsoring you for some reason, I don't know how this even works. I have no chance.
So first and most important question, how's your golf game?

**Mike Alfred** (1:47)
Rough.

**Scott Melker** (1:48)
It's the worst.
You know, I played for my high school golf team and I just got worse over time to the point where I got so frustrated with it that it was no longer worth my time. Maybe one day.

**SPEAKER_2** (2:00)
It's beautiful out there though.

**Mike Alfred** (2:01)
That's what matters, right?

**Scott Melker** (2:02)
Yeah, turn the phone off and go out there and hack away. All right. So we got this title, right? Why this Bitcoin dip is actually bullish. We have a kind of endless narratives as to why this dip is happening, which I find funny because it was the bond market that was the catalyst for us to go up. But now apparently, it's the bond market that's the catalyst for us to go down.
Ten-year US Treasury yield hits highest level since November 2023 Many pointing out obviously that Besant didn't really manage to manipulate the market for long, right? Rates came down very temporarily on the news that they were going to intervene and went back up. Of course, we have oil yield curves in England and Japan and every... You know, bond market is apparently bad across the board plus war and oil going up. So those are the excuses apparently for the Bitcoin drop.

**Mike Alfred** (2:53)
Well, Bitcoin is up though.
So Bitcoin is up quite a bit over the last couple of weeks. It was 60K, went as low as 57, 58 It never really violated the February lows. So the four-year cycle, Doomers, who predicted that Bitcoin would fall all the way into October, it looks like they've already been wrong. And the fact that Bitcoin is 76K right now with yields as high as they are, with oil, with the election cycle and everything that's going on, I would call that a win. I think it's pretty clear now, Scott, that there was no four-year cycle bear market. So we did not get a 85% decline. We got a little over a 50%.

**Scott Melker** (3:35)
So a mid- bull market decline rather than a period.

**Mike Alfred** (3:38)
I consider it a mid- and you probably heard me or seen me say this, I've considered this a mid-cycle correction the entire time, all the way back before February even.
I have the same track record as everyone else in calling Bitcoin short-term moves, which is to say not great. But my track record in calling directionally the long-term has been pretty good. What I saw this cycle basically since the liquidity bottom in December of 2022 is an incomplete crypto cycle. I don't even think we had really a crypto cycle at all since 2021 I think the last five years has basically been the desert. There have obviously been moments where certain assets have run temporarily, but we haven't seen the all-inclusive crypto rally where risk goes out on the curve, and everybody in crypto makes money, and in fact, a big chunk of people have left crypto for good, and moved to AI or moved to do something else because there hasn't been much money to make. I would consider the strength the last two to three weeks to be very telling, and the fact that we haven't violated the lows from way back in early February, as a reminder to people that calling Bitcoin a four-year cycle and saying it acts the same way every time is probably incorrect.