Why the Midterms Suddenly Look So Bad for Republicans

Derek Thompson (0:06)

Today, the midterms.

Last year, Republicans were overwhelming favorites to maintain their majority in the US. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. The prediction market, Cal-She, gave them an 80% chance to hold the Senate through most of 2025 But that has suddenly changed. Cal-She now says Democrats have over a 60% chance to win back the Senate. Now, prediction markets are not magic on questions like this. They often function more like a mathematical summary of conventional wisdom. But many of the political forecasters that I trust most agree that Republicans are in deep, deep trouble. How do things change so quickly? What if the polls are wrong? What if the polls are right?

Today's guest is Nate Silver. We talk about the state of the race, the state of polling, the reasons behind Donald Trump's collapsing approval rating, the difference between Trump 2 and 1.0, and what Democrats might be finally doing right. I'm Derek Thompson. This is Plain English.

SPEAKER_2 (1:35)

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Derek Thompson (2:03)

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Nate Silver, welcome back to the show.

Nate Silver (2:43)

Derek, thanks for having me back on.

Derek Thompson (2:45)

Let's get your basic temperature check first. What is the state of the midterm elections?

Nate Silver (2:51)

The state of the midterms is increasingly blue, I suppose I'd say.

As of Labor Day, the basic picture was Democrats were pretty heavy favorites to flip the House, and the Senate was a toss up. You can debate if there was a slight tilt toward Democrats or not. Since Labor Day, Democrats have gained about two and a half points in the polls. The equivalent of a presidential national poll for congressional races is called the generic congressional ballot. It just asks, who do you plan to vote for in your congressional district? Sometimes they name the county, sometimes they don't. That shifted from about a six and a half point democratic advantage to like an eight and a half or nine point democratic advantage, sometimes even more in polls of likely voters, so people that they think are actually going to turn out and vote. We have seen D plus 11s and D plus 12s and D plus 13s, things that would pretend a very large wave. We always have to caution a couple of things. One, the polls can be off and we have experience with that. In recent elections, particularly polls underrating Republicans, though it can go the other way too. Number two, I think a lot of this is about the kind of most recent rise in gas prices going from $4 a gallon to more like $4.50. Diesel is even higher. If somehow prices go down by November, then that might be a saving grace for Republicans. But yeah, we've gone from Senate or the House was always going to be leaning Democratic. We can talk about the history of midterms and that usually happens.

But the Senate, you can no longer fairly call a toss up. That's a cop out. If you look at both the race by race polling and the national polling, the polling now leans Democratic.

Derek Thompson (4:40)

I want to get jump into race by race polling in just a second. But first, to add a little bit of historical context. In early 2025, most people thought that the Senate was completely out of reach for Democrats. I was looking at betting markets, not because I'm a betting markets kind of guy, but just because it's a really good snapshot of elite consensus in any particular time.

Cal-She predict it had Republicans at 80 percent to keep the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Even through this summer, Republicans were still significantly favored to keep the midterms. What did that consensus rest on, and why do you think it broke around August September?