Why the Crypto Market Cap Could Reach $50 Trillion This Cycle

Ran Neuner (0:00)

I think when we talk about AI agents, we're not going to talk about what date and what time. We're just going to say it's block 16742 That's good in block. And when is the loan repayable? The loan is repayable in block 9,000, 9 billion, 9 trillion, whatever the block is.

Laura Shin (0:15)

Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained, your no-hike resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin. Thanks for joining this live stream, and we will first take a quick word from the sponsors who make this show possible. This episode is brought to you by Oneinch Aqua, the shared liquidity layer from Oneinch. Back multiple liquidity positions with one wallet balance, and keep your tokens in your wallet until a swap fills. See how it works at oneinch.com/aqua.

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Today's guest is Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter. Welcome, Ran.

Ran Neuner (1:19)

Laura, so good to see you. I was just saying, we were just talking in the back here, and I'm saying that you're one of the few people that started in crypto media around the same time I started, around 2016, 2017 In fact, I think you started before me.

Laura Shin (1:32)

Yes, 2015, in the blockchain, not Bitcoin era.

Ran Neuner (1:38)

For those of you who don't know, Laura was actually writing for Forbes in 2015

Laura Shin (1:42)

Yes.

You and I have seen it all, and this morning we're in an interesting place. The tenure is at its highest since 2007, and you tweeted that you think this will bring fresh liquidity into the system. So explain what it is that you think is about to happen, and where you think this nascent crypto bull market is headed.

Ran Neuner (2:07)

So, I mean, I think you said it correctly that we're in a crypto bull market. I mean, if you, I just want to show you one or two charts on the screen, maybe it'll make it a little bit easier to digest, but we're in a crypto bull market. We have the peaks, and then we have the one year bear markets. This bear market was about 11 months. And if you kind of like dig into what caused this increase in the bull market, it was when Scott Bessent took on the bond market and basically said he's going to double the treasury buybacks.

And up until now, he's basically bought fists into a big fight, because in order to make a dent in the long-term treasury yields, he needs to do much more than the $4 billion or the $6 billion worth of buybacks.

And so yesterday, we got two data points which basically scared the bond market a little bit. The first data point that we got yesterday was the PMI numbers, which were kind of heated, and so the markets worried about inflation again. And the second data point that we got was that the US was struggling to sell its five-year treasury yields, right? And so there's no demand for US treasuries. Now, what does the country do when there's no demand for its own treasuries? Well, ultimately, what they do is they'll end up buying their treasuries, or they'll end up buying their debt back themselves. And Scott Bessent has basically come out to the market and basically said, we're going to buy our own debt. You know, we're going to double it, we're going to triple it. And ultimately, he's got an account called the Treasury General Account. There's a trillion dollars in that account, which he could call on to buy back their own debt. And there are many other means that they can deploy.

The one thing you've got to remember, though, is that Scott Bessent is a market genius, and specifically a currency is a bond market genius. He's done this for many years. He did this under George Soros back in the day. So he knows exactly what he's doing. I think he's probably engineering the ultimate short squeeze. I think he's waiting for the bond vigilantes to pile into the long dated bonds, or to short the long dated bonds. And then I think what he's gonna do is, I think he's gonna create the ultimate short squeeze by putting money into the economy.