Why Silicon Valley is watching Brazil’s election, David Shor on AI bubble

SPEAKER_1 (0:01)

Your vehicle doesn't just get you from here to there. It's a bridge to the people and places that matter most. To how you show up for your family, your community, and everyone else that depends on you.

That's why for 125 years, Firestone has been building tires with one thing in mind, to deliver products that are as reliable as you are. Firestone, always dependable since 1900

Sam Sutton (0:33)

Hello and welcome to Decoded. I'm Sam Sutton. Today on the show, we'll discuss how an election in Brazil might impact the biggest players in Silicon Valley. Plus, back in the US, we talked to two progressive analysts about new polling done on a potential AI bubble. Is it a sign that the public views on AI risks have moved beyond cybersecurity?

We have a special guest on the show today, Politico's Latin American correspondent Ava Hartog. Ava, welcome to the show.

Ava Hartog (0:57)

Thanks for having me.

Sam Sutton (0:59)

Now, you've been reporting on Brazil's election for the last couple of months. Election night is this Sunday. I'm wondering if you can tell us a little bit why this election matters to the tech world.

Ava Hartog (1:09)

Yeah, maybe to start off with some context that might be important. I mean, Brazilians are among the world's top users of tech platforms, but Brazil also has some of the tightest social media regulations. And so to your point about the election, to put it very simply, one of the candidates who is running, the right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, and the tech world share a common enemy, and that enemy is a Brazilian justice who happens to also be an ally of the incumbent president, Lula, who's running for re-election. That there's this one justice called Alexandre de Moraes, and he is Bolsonaro's enemy, basically. He's a judge on the Supreme Court, who also used to preside over the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, and things can get a bit complicated here. But that tribunal is this body that basically governs the election process in Brazil, and it has these amazing powers. It can open cases, investigate them, rule on them all in one. And so for the past several years, it's been the biggest enforcer of restrictions on political speech.

Sam Sutton (2:15)

Can you give me some examples? Like who is the tribunal targeting exactly?

Ava Hartog (2:18)

Yeah, I mean, I think the real question is who hasn't it targeted over the past several years? The famous example is in August 2024, it temporarily blocked Brazilians access to X for about six weeks after basically the platform refused or failed to comply with some of its demands. But in recent years, this justice, Moraes, has also ordered Meta and YouTube to take down posts.

And what he says is that he's doing all of this in the name of protecting democracy from misinformation and hate speech. The court also ordered Apple and Google to remove Telegram from their app stores. During this election cycle, it's actually mostly Meta that's in the close hairs. In short, name attack platform ends Brazil's court, and Moraes specifically has probably gone after it.

Sam Sutton (3:06)

Moraes has been pretty friendly to Lula.

Bolsonaro's family has been relatively friendly with the Trump family over the years. Curious about Moraes' relationship with President Trump or President Trump's broader business empire?

Ava Hartog (3:22)

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Moraes and Trump do not get along at all. So last year, February, Trump Media, which owns Truth, Social and Rumble, sued Moraes in a federal court for what they said was censorship, for censoring what they say is legitimate political discourse. And Trump has also accused Moraes of a political, quote unquote, witch hunt against the senior Bolsonaro, because one very important thing to keep in mind is that Moraes hasn't just gone after tech platforms, but also Jair Bolsonaro. And he's the father of Flavio Bolsonaro, who's running in this election. It was actually Moraes who sent Jair Bolsonaro, who's Flavio's father, to prison, who's sentenced him to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after the last election. And so you can see there are a lot of moving parts. They're very much intertwined. But basically Trump is a backer of the Bolsonaro family. He has very good relationships with Jair Bolsonaro and as a consequence also with his son Flavio. And Trump has really picked their side. And so Trump last year imposed tariffs on Brazil, but also sanctions, personal sanctions, for Moraes for his role in sending Jair Bolsonaro to jail. So this is pretty personal to both of them.

Sam Sutton (4:43)

What about the tribunal's relationship to the president, to Lula?

Ava Hartog (4:46)