Why OpenAI, Anthropic, Other Big Tech IPOs Stay Private for Longer

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

Okay, so 2026 was supposed to be the IPO comeback story. Instead, it's the year of haves and have nots. For more, we want to welcome in Dean Quiambo, his partner with Armonino, joining us here at the Big Board. Dean, thank you so much for joining us today.

Dean Quiambo (0:13)

Oh, happy to be here.

SPEAKER_1 (0:15)

All right, so it is the year of the haves and have nots. This is your words here. You can see that, for instance, SpaceX, fantastic IPO. Earlier this year, Cerebris was the biggest IPO story. Why has it turned into a year of haves and have nots?

Dean Quiambo (0:30)

AI is the most game changing technology of our lives, and it's here. If you're AI or AI adjacent, times are really, really good. Times are exciting. Everybody who I'm talking to or who's in that space, people are writing them checks, customers are coming to them, and everybody else, let's be real, it's tough.

SPEAKER_1 (0:53)

So let me ask you this. We've seen some big companies that were expected to go public this year, pull back their IPOs, for instance, or we should be talking about that being a public company right now. They've decided to stay private for longer. OpenAI has pushed out their plans for their IPO to next year.

What do you think that's happening?

Dean Quiambo (1:14)

Uncertainty.

Let's call it what it is, right?

I tell my teenage daughter, when people show you who they are, believe them. Well, that's what's happening right now, right? That IPO market is not ripping like we thought it would at the beginning of the year because interest rates, because inflation, because of war, and then we have elections coming up. There's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of management teams and leadership teams that I'm talking to. They're trying to figure all of that out. Right now, they're like, you know what? Let's just continue to operate our business, not worry about all of the things we can't control.

SPEAKER_1 (1:50)

Now, there were some sizable IPOs this year, so one might say that it's not a bad year for the IPO market, but not as banner as many expected. This was supposed to be the year of the mega IPO. We were supposed to have SpaceX. We did have SpaceX, so that's a check, right?

We're expecting to get Anthropic next month. We're not going to get OpenAI till next year. How would you rate how performance has been so far this year?

Dean Quiambo (2:19)

Selective. The IPO market is not for everyone, right? The leadership teams that I'm talking to realize that they've got to be really big, right? The bar of revenue, much higher. The margin and gross margin and growth, much higher. So they've got work to do, right? And people do not want to go out unless they are ready, right?

They can go get money, private capital on the side. They do not want to go out unless they're completely ready. That means having financials and budgets that they can forecast and routinely hit.

SPEAKER_1 (2:51)

Okay. And what else would you say that would make one ready? Because one of the things that we've noticed over the past several years now is that companies are staying private for longer, and so when they come to public markets, they're more mature than once upon a time.

What does the readiness roadmap look like?

Dean Quiambo (3:11)

Yeah, you know, it's going to be the PCAOB audit, it's going to be the SOX controls, it's going to be the strong people process technology, but ultimately it's going to be this.

We have a story of where we're going to go. We take this investment, this is what we're going to do with it, this is how we're going to execute, and this is how our results are going to prove our valuation. When you continue to do that quarter after quarter, enterprise market value will rise and everybody's happy.

SPEAKER_1 (3:41)

Does a SpaceX flashy debut create a higher bar for other companies trying to come to public markets?

Dean Quiambo (3:47)

I think that's part of 2026 Let's be real. We have the mega, right? We've got the SpaceX, the Anthropic, and the OpenAI, and people want those to go through.

That does raise the bar, right? So people want those companies. Let's get them through, let's get them out, and then we'll see how the market receives them and then the rest of the companies can follow.

SPEAKER_1 (4:07)

Were you surprised that Anthropic still decided to move forward with its IPO this year?

Dean Quiambo (4:11)

I think everybody wants to see it. I think they want to see it.