Why It Might Actually Be Too Late to Buy Bitcoin Soon! | Truth Block

Hurley (0:00)

Bitcoin just printed its highest weekly close in eight months. It's been stair-stepping higher week after week, and it's up almost 50% since June. And most people still aren't paying attention. And unfortunately, many won't until it retakes 100k. So are we nearing the point where it actually is too late to buy Bitcoin? Because the President of the United States just told us how he plans to pay off $40 trillion of debt. And his Treasury Secretary just admitted on camera that he can't control the bond market. Today, I'll show you why the only way Bitcoin fails is the one thing Washington just ruled out. And why waiting for a retake of 100k could be the most expensive mistake of your life. This is TruthBlock. I'm Hurley. Let's mine truth.

Quick thing before we get started. Most people watching this aren't subscribed. And right now, this market is moving fast. Bond yields, the Fed, Bitcoin, it's all changing daily. So make sure to hit subscribe so you never miss a beat. Alright, let's get into it. Bitcoin is sitting around $85,000 today after getting within a few hundred dollars of 87k last night. That's two weekly closes in a row above the high from back in May. And it's getting there with barely any pullbacks along the way. James Chek over at ChekOnChain summed it up this morning. The bulls just aren't giving sidelined investors any serious dips to buy. And look who's doing the buying. Leverage in the futures market keeps falling. Traders are paying next to nothing to stay long. And long-term holders are sitting on their hands. So this move is being made with real money, while the borrowed money mostly sits it out. According to Glassnode, the whales stopped sending their Bitcoin to exchanges back in late August, and they still haven't started again. And every one of the last four times Bitcoin was this far off a cycle low, it was higher 6, 12, 18 and 24 months later. So what's fueling this? Once again, it starts in the bond market. The bond crisis we've been tracking for the last month continues to get worse every single day. Treasuries just had their worst quarter since 1994 The 10-year is back up around 5.3%.

The 30-year is pushing 5.7. And this morning, the 20-year hit 5.7% as well. And remember, the Fed started cutting rates back in September of 2024 Since that day, the 30-year has gone from about 4% to over 5.6%.

The cuts were supposed to bring borrowing costs down. And the bond market did the exact opposite. Last week, the Treasury filled its full $6 billion bond buyback for the first time. Then Friday's job report came in at just $29,000, and the odds of another Fed hike this month collapsed to about 20%.

Both of those should have pulled yields down.

Instead, the long end finished the week higher.

Last month, the Treasury Secretary Scott Besson told a room full of business students, I am the house now. Then he went on CNBC and admitted he can't set the price.

This weekend on the Axio show, Mike Allen asked him if he regrets the house line.

Mike Allen (2:50)

Last month, you told the markets, I am the house now. They bet against you their apparel.

Do you regret saying I am the house now?

Scott Bessent (2:59)

No, because look, the health doesn't win every hand. The house plays the percentages.

And look, maybe they hurt some fragile egos on Wall Street, that I always had respect for the market. And I always tried to look and think, what's the move after the move? That if you have an ego, you lose a lot of money.

Mike Allen (3:23)

But the market swept back.

Scott Bessent (3:24)

No, it didn't. How did it swept back?

Rates went up, but oil went up. That I could say, okay, yesterday we had the first full allocation since we have expanded our treasury buybacks and rates collapsed. There's nothing causal there. It was coincidental. I would be concerned if we were having some kind of idiosyncratic rise. It's been a global rise.

The US market, US bond performance since the president came in has been the best in the world. So we are not seeing people sell treasuries to buy German bonds or Japanese bonds. And like I said, that I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think, because my job in the financial markets for 30 years was to be outside the door, ear to the door, when policy was being made, sometimes with myself over the transom, and think like what policymakers are going to do, should do, can do. And now that I'm in the room, and what I meant by I in the house is that I have superior information.