Why Bitcoin's First Supercycle Could Be Starting Right Now! | Truth Block

Hurley (0:00)

Bitcoin's first real supercycle could be starting right now, and the global bond crisis is what's lighting the fuse. Bond yields in the US and all over the world just keep ripping higher and higher. And the Treasury Secretary who bragged that he was the house went on CNBC and admitted that he can't even set the price anymore. Meanwhile, Bitcoin just ripped through its second best third quarter in history. And now we've officially entered October. Today, I'll show you why this is the most explosive setup Bitcoin has had heading into Q4 in years, and why the big money is already calling for a $500,000 Bitcoin as the first step. This is TruthBlock. I'm Hurley. Let's mine truth.

Quick thing before we start. Most people watching this aren't subscribed. And right now, this market is moving fast. Bond yields, the Fed, Bitcoin, it's all changing daily. So make sure you hit subscribe so you never miss a beat. All right, let's get into it. Bitcoin is sitting right around $84,000, boxed in between 82 and 85K for the last week or so. But zoom out just a little bit. Bitcoin finished the third quarter up about 40%.

It's best quarter since early 2024, and its second best third quarter ever, behind only 2017

Gold and the S&P 500, meanwhile, were both up less than 3%.

And now we're officially into October. And you all know what that means. October has closed green in 10 of the last 13 years. But lest we not forget that last October was the top. Bitcoin hit about $126,000 on October 6th. And four days later, the biggest liquidation in crypto history was the catalyst that eventually broke the market. But I want you to forget about the calendar for a second, because the real reason I'm this bullish is what's happening underneath it. And once again, it starts with the bond market. The bond crisis we've been tracking the last month or so just got worse. The 10-year is above 5.3%.

The 30-year is pushing 5.7. And that's happening everywhere at once. From Japan to Germany to Britain. France just blew out against Germany in a way it's only done once since the euro was born. In that time, the European Central Bank had to promise whatever it takes. And remember what Treasury Secretary Scott Besson told a roomful of business students?

Scott Bessent (2:07)

I am the house now. You can bet against me if you want.

Hurley (2:10)

Well, on September 21st, he went on CNBC to explain why the Treasury keeps making its bond buybacks bigger and he made a startling admission.

SPEAKER_3 (2:18)

Can you just give us some more colour on will you continue to use funds to buy the long end?

Scott Bessent (2:27)

Well, we always do that. But I just raised the size because we were in a very illiquid period. The market was moving quickly. As I've said, I can't set the equilibrium price.

Hurley (2:41)

So the house just admitted it can't set the price.

The buybacks went from 2 billion to 4 to 6, and the 10-year went from under 5% to over 5.3 anyway. And this week, it got even stranger.

On Wednesday, inflation came in cooler than expected, and the odds of another Fed hike this month got cut in half. So the market now expects the Fed to hold rates. Normally, that's when bond yields fall.

Instead, the 10-year just kept climbing. As SiteBringer says, the bond market stopped waiting for the Fed. The fix runs through the treasury now. Shorten the debt, buy back the long bonds, get stable coins to hold the short-term bills, and eventually let the Fed buy them too. Nobody will call it yield curve control, but that's what it'll be. In plain English, the government caps its own borrowing costs by creating new money to buy its own debt. And October decides whether they do it on their own schedule or the markets. Matt Cole runs Strive, one of the biggest public Bitcoin treasury companies. And at the Bitcoin Treasury Conference in New York on Monday, he walks through exactly what happens when they do. And Rick Edelman, who built one of the biggest advisory firms in America, picks it up at the tail end.

Matt Cole (3:42)

I think this current macro set of conditions, specifically on the yield levels, obviously right now, if you're paying attention, the 10-year went above 520 today.

We don't think that it will go much higher, but we think it needs intervention to not go much higher. And so it'll move higher over time until, in our view, the Treasury deploys a lot more for buybacks on the long end or the Fed steps in. I think the Treasury will step in, and the release foul will be the dollar. And so part of our thesis here is that if you actually look at indicators of Bitcoin price action, one of the strongest one is a weaker dollar. And our view is we think that there's gonna be a structurally weaker dollar. We think that the Treasury wants it. We think Trump wants it. We think JD Vance wants it. And that they are the house, and if they want to do something, they'll eventually do it. But right now, I think we're in a cycle where the yields will move up until they actually deploy true capital. And when they do, the dollar will move lower. And we think it is an insanely positive macro condition for Bitcoin in that, and we're calling an average CAGR for the next three, four years of about 50%, with bands of 30% to 70%. So, which would put Bitcoin roughly around 500,000 by 2030, but it's more of the macro conditions. And so, I guess the four-year cycle, I guess it kind of plays out, but if Bitcoin only went down a little bit more than 50%, I would actually classify 50% corrections more as like a super cycle condition.