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Christy Strawser (0:01)

The day's biggest stories, the people behind the headlines, the conversations you won't hear anywhere else. I'm Christy Strawser. You're listening to Audacy's On Deadline. It's been a minute since we checked in on the war in Iran, so let's kick things off there.

Here's Newell Normand in New Orleans.

Art Shirari (0:17)

I'm Art Shirari, Senior Research Analyst, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. And we know that tensions are escalating across the Middle East, that the price of oil has gone up, gasoline prices have gone up, diesel prices have gone up. Everyone thinking about the midterms and how they're going to go about strategically dealing with this potential issue because it is a top-of-mind issue for every American consumer out there, every week when they visit the pump and they see what the numbers are, they're not happy and rightfully so. So, let's talk about what Tehran is doing now. It's just kind of laying the landscape of the issue in the Middle East, working through their proxies. We're seeing the Hooties becoming very aggressive, very proactive in some of what's going on there. Talk to us about that.

Sure.

Ahmad (1:18)

So, we're seeing Iran activating its proxies in Yemen, as you correctly stated. And over the past week, the Hooties managed to take a large swath of Yemeni territory on the coast, on the Red Sea Coast. And now they have full control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Now, the US or representatives of the US government met the Hooties in Oman last week, where there was a discussion over the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. And there was an understanding that American vessels will not be targeted by the Hooties and that the blockade is only for Saudi vessels. But of course, I mean, there is always a risk for insurers and maritime companies when it comes to that. And so Iran is trying to exercise maximum pressure on the US and its partners in the region by trying to exercise some sort of control over the critical choke points in the maritime or the maritime choke points that influence and the oil markets and the energy markets and the whole world.

Art Shirari (2:33)

I was saying before you came on, Ahmad, that it seems like the Saudis are going to deploy the same strategy that we did with the US., is that they're going to make this an air strategy, that they would try to do that first. Do we see that actually working out for them so far, and are we going to end up in the same prolonged state that we've seen in the Straits?

Ahmad (3:00)

I mean, historically speaking, the Saudis have tried the air campaign option, even with a ground force, and they failed to get rid of the Houthis. Now the Saudis have continued their airstrikes against some of the Houthi strongholds in Yemen. There's been, I believe, drawn attacks in Sana'a, the capital city of Yemen, that is controlled by the Houthis. But the problem is that the ground force that the Saudis have been relying on are divided. And there's multiple factions that are not on the same page when it comes to dictating military operations against the Houthis. And that's how these forces eventually lost territory last week on the Red Sea Coast because of how disorganized they were. It was a very fast withdrawal, and they were selling their weapons as soon as the Houthis came. The chain of command collapsed.

So in my opinion, I think the air campaign is not enough to get rid of the Houthis.

There needs to be a competent ground force that is willing to confront them, one that is unified. But that doesn't exist. I mean, that force doesn't exist. Let's also not leave out the option of diplomacy that the Saudis might exercise in the future, or in the near future, and that they might hold negotiations with the Houthis and pay them off, which has happened before. So the Saudis have multiple options to confront this issue, but I'm certain that the air campaign is not enough on its own.

Art Shirari (4:38)

Obviously the Saudis looked to the US immediately, and it seems apparent to everyone that the US sent a message to them that they have no interest in getting involved, right?

Ahmad (4:50)

Yes, I mean, the US has deployed the advisors to Saudi Arabia, I think, mainly for defensive measures, but also for intelligence help or intelligence collection on the Houthis. But in terms of, I mean, there was a CNN report from the weekend that President Trump was considering a military option against the Houthis, but that doesn't seem to come into fruition.