Why are there more cancer deaths than ever before?

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Why are there more cancer deaths than ever before?

Thanks for asking.

It's not something we like to dwell on too often, but the chance for each of us getting some kind of cancer during our lifetime is significant. After all, it's the second leading cause of death worldwide, according to the World Health Organisation. Just behind heart disease. Cancer Research UK puts the estimated lifetime risk of a man or woman getting cancer at nearly one in two. Research has shown the extent to which cancer cases have been growing in recent decades, and not just among the elderly. A study published in BMJ Oncology in September 2023 showed that there had been a striking 79% increase in new early-onset cancer cases from 1990 to 2019

Early-onset is a term used to describe cancer in the under 50s. More worryingly still, that's a trend that looks set to continue as we progress further into the 21st century.

Why is that then? Well, a major study published in September 2025 in medical journal The Lancet offered some answers. It included contributions from more than 2,000 researchers, examining a combined 47 types of cancer across 204 countries. And the conclusions were clear. Without new measures and more targeted funding, the situation is only going to get worse. In concrete terms, the researchers estimate that by 2050, 30.5 million people could be diagnosed with cancer each year, and more than 18 million could die from it. That would mean around 75% more deaths than in 2024

Isn't it normal for cancer deaths to increase as the global population grows? Well, yes, that is a good point. And the study's authors did indeed identify population growth and an ageing population as being the main reasons behind the projected increase in new cancer cases. But that's only part of the picture. You see, the researchers estimate that 41.7% of cancer deaths worldwide are linked to avoidable risk factors. Tobacco is by far the leading one. But alcohol, poor diet, high blood sugar and a lack of physical activity are also in there. To put things into perspective, tobacco is linked to 16 different types of cancer and alcohol to around 10 The researchers contributing to the Lancet study described this as an opportunity to act since those are risks that can be reduced.

Is the situation the same everywhere in the world? Not really. Just like hunger and climate change vulnerability, there's also major inequality in cancer outcomes between rich and poor countries. Over the past 30 years, cancer mortality has fallen by 33% in the wealthiest countries, while in the poorest it has risen by 14%, largely because access to healthcare is more limited. By 2050, more than half of new cancer cases and around 2 thirds of deaths are expected to occur in low and middle income countries. Take Lebanon for example. It's one of the countries where mortality has risen the most, increasing from 65.2 to 117.3 deaths per 100,000 people between 1990 and 2023 The underlying causes also vary from one country to another. Tobacco remains the main risk factor in most places, but in some lower income countries, unprotected sex is a more significant driver. That's because it can lead to human papillomavirus. That's because it can lead to human papillomavirus. HPV is the leading cause of cervical cancer in a lot of those countries. There you have it.

Now you know why there are more cancer deaths than ever before. In under 3 minutes, we answer your questions and help you understand the true meaning behind the trends, concepts and acronyms that are making headlines. Listen along and you will really know for sure.