Why $10 Million Bitcoin Isn’t As Crazy As It Sounds | Avichal Garg

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Scott Melker (0:29)

What if 5 million or even 10 million dollar Bitcoin isn't as crazy as it sounds? Today, I'm talking with Avichal Garg about why Bitcoin could eventually become bigger than gold.

Avichal Garg (0:38)

Because Bitcoin is so much more in the world than gold. Like anybody on the phone can get it, right? Like the size of these markets is so enormous, when you can get the entire world on them, that I don't think it's crazy that Bitcoin ends up being bigger than gold.

Scott Melker (0:50)

And why AI agents may create an entirely new wave of demand that almost nobody is pricing in yet.

Avichal Garg (0:55)

These things are going to be sitting on assets, and a huge use case is going to be AI agents trading. To me, it's very clear that agents will have wallet, because an agent can't KYC, it has to have a crypto wallet.

Scott Melker (1:04)

We also get into autonomous AI companies, the future of on-chain capital formation, which crypto assets could actually accrue real value, and why the next generation of global companies may be created, funded, and operated almost entirely on blockchain rails. The convergence of AI and crypto can be much bigger than we're prepared for. Let's go.

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Because you made some waves recently by saying that Bitcoin going to 5 or 10 million isn't crazy, right? So walk me through the assumptions behind that kind of number, because those really get people going.

Avichal Garg (2:35)

Yeah. Well, the intention... Well, by the way, we've been saying this for a long time. So the intention is not necessarily to get people going. It's just... It's one of these things where I think if you look at the basics and the math on this stuff, you can kind of reason your way through it. And the way we've always thought about it is this is Avichal Gold. It's a fixed supply asset.

It's easy to transport. It's easy to subdivide. It's a global liquid market. I think people at this point have probably heard the arguments for Bitcoin. And I think people in the United States sometimes, or people in the West sometimes forget how easy it is for us to acquire gold. You can go to the store and buy some, or you can get some gold futures or whatever. In a lot of the world, you can't get gold that easily.

And people want it. People want dollars in gold. And so what you finally have is the ability to get a digital gold equivalent, not literally gold, but it meets all the same requirements, and actually in many ways is superior.

And so I think as institutions have figured this out, they're coming in, I think eventually the sovereigns will figure it out, they'll come in. But this is just that much more accessible to retail all over the world. And so I tend to think as many people will have Bitcoin as hold gold. And if you just look at the market cap perspective from a net dollars perspective, how much money can come in, if Bitcoin and gold get to a similar market cap, you're talking well in excess of a million dollars per Bitcoin, if they're at the same market cap. And I think there's a very straightforward argument that because Bitcoin is so much more accessible than gold, like anybody on a phone can get it. I think one of the lessons of the internet is when you put things on a phone, you actually get tanned expansion, you get addressable market expansion. Like back in the day, people used to talk about, hey, how could Uber possibly be worth more than $10 billion? Because the entire taxi industry is only worth $10 billion without realizing that when we put Uber on one of these things, all of a sudden, 10X as many people can do it. And so Uber is worth $100 billion, 10X bigger than the taxi industry used to be worth. And I think that TAM expansion is underappreciated. Like if you went back 15 years and you told your friends, there are going to be multiple companies worth more than a trillion dollars. There are going to be 10 companies worth more than a trillion dollars. There are going to be some companies worth $5 trillion. Like nobody would have believed you, right? Like the size of these markets is just so enormous when you can get the entire world on them. That I don't think it's crazy that Bitcoin ends up being bigger than gold in the fullness of time. And so very quickly, you can do that sort of one-to-one math and say, wait a second, this is even bigger.